Beginning of August, the U.S. announced that they had developed "a plan to attack Iran". But Iran has an attack plan of its own. Since the U.S. is on the other side of the world, Iran's primary retaliation plan would include attacks on U.S. strategic interests and a indirect assault on Israel. This analytical report shows you what exacly Iran is capable. From its proxy groups to regional destabilization to the chokepoints of the Persian Gulf. An attack on Iran is not without its repercussions for the entire world.
Famous military historian, Semistan Nezirli, explains the early years of the Azerbaijani national army of 1918. From the 'Caucasus Campaign' to the historic battle between the Russian Empire and independent Azerbaijan. Featuring unique images, interviews and narrating by Mr. Nezirli himself.
In 1978 the Armenian Nagorno Karabakh Oblast erected a memorial dedicated to the 150 years of Armenian settlement in Karabagh. The settlement of Armenians took place after the adoption of the treaty of turkmenchay in 1828. The Armenians had arrived from a city in Iran, called Maragha, in fact a region of Karabagh was later renamed after Maragha. However the memorial only remained in this shape for only 10 years. By 1988 the inscription of the memorial was removed, this was done to manufacture a new history. A history that would be compatible with the territorial ambitions of Armenia.
There is more than just oil in Azerbaijan. This is a country with a rich and ancient history. It was the first democratic country in the Islamic world. Women's suffrage in Azerbaijan preceded the United Kingdom and the United States. Azerbaijani scientists contributed to the world development. Some of world's greatest literaturture was written in Azerbaijan. And the Azerbaijani dynasties founded some of the world's greatest empires. Even the name of 'Azerbaycan' is ancient, meaining 'Land of the Eternal Fire', because it is here where the prophet of Zoroaster founded a new religion that would later on influence the Persian Empire.
The US interests in the Caucasus are related to the Azerbaijani and Georgian geographical positions, natural resources, economic influence, energy routes and the Afghanistan Plan. The indispensable strategic position of Azerbaijan makes the country unique. As the country is located between Russia and Iran it serves as a transit state but also a buffer zone for the two. No other country can offer the United States a stronghold that can play a double role. Now consider the economic influence and natural resources of the country and the importance of Azerbaijan increases. Add to this the alternative energy route for Europe that passes through Azerbaijan and Georgia. Then think of the crucial role Azerbaijan plays in the Northern Distribution Network, and the immense value of Azerbaijan and Georgia for the United States is revealed.
Mysterious, shrouded in legends and tales Sabayil castle is of particular interest because it is located directly under the water, 350 meters from the shore, and often for this reason is called the Atlantis of the Caspian Sea. It was constructed on a rocky island in the Baylovskoy Bay by Shirvanshah Fariburz III, in 1235. In 1306, the fortress went into the water because of the strong earthquake in the south of the Caspian Sea and the dramatic rise of the sea level. It was only in the early 18th century, when the Caspian Sea retreated, that the island resurfaced.
The influence that the United States projects on the world affairs is not so much related to its military power or democratic system. It has to do with geopolitics and geoeconomics. North America connects two major economic regions - Europe and Asia. This is the foundation of U.S. economy, which accounts for about 25% of the total world economy. In order to defend the geopolitical interests, the U.S. has deployed its naval fleets in all oceans of the world, and thereby controls all the oceans. This gives the U.S. the ability to block out any other country from the global trade. And this is why many countries prefer to cooperate with the US rather then compete over naval dominance
'Leyli and Majnun' was premiered in Baku on January 25, 1908 and thereby became the first opera in the East. The story was written on the bases of 16th century poetical adaptation by the great Azerbaijani poet and philosopher Muhammad Fizuli of the beautiful story of two lovers Leyli and Majnun -- Romeo and Juliet of the East. The composer Uzeir Hajibeyov used classical samples of folk creativity -- mugams and traditional opera forms -- choir, ballet, duets and mass scenes. Azerbaijani Mugam was proclaimed a Masterpiece of the Oral and Intangible Heritage of Humanity in 2003.
The island of Bahrain is where Iranian and Saudi interests intersect. The tiny country is ruled by a Sunni monarchy with a Shiite majority population. If the situation in Bahrain gets out of control, the U.S. could lose a base for its 5th Fleet and the possibility for withdrawal from Iraq. Shia minorities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia could follow with their own protests. Once that happens it could affect the world's most important oil-producing region. It is for these reasons why tiny Bahrain could emerge as a flashpoint in the Persian Gulf
Mubarak is out of office; the military regime remains intact and has dramatically increased its power. But there is a big difference between the reality and interpretation by the world media. Contrary to what many people believe the military and Mubarak were not on the same team. Mubarak's intention to appoint his son as his successor, was an attempt to transform the military regime into a monarchy. When the demonstrations started the military saw an opportunity and welcomed it.
A key principle that appears to be driving the uprisings in the Middle East is kleptocracy; a government run by personal wealth and corruption. Mubarak, Gaddafi and the royal family of Bahrain, are all examples of kleptocratic rulers. But the revolts also have broader geopolitical implications. These kinds of moments of chaos and anarchy do not come often. As history shows, somebody always has to fill the void that is left behind.
The problems between the United States and Iran are based on geopolitics and not on ideology. In the end Iran only poses a limited geopolitical threat to U.S. interests. On the side, Russia is a serious threat to global American interests and even American soil, just think of the Russian nuclear arsenal. Essentially the problems between the U.S. and Russia vastly outweight the problems between U.S. and Iran. An alliance is always formed out of fear from a 3rd party, that fear which Iran and the U.S. share is a re-emerging Russia.
An explosion was reported at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. As the earthquake damaged the ability of the control rods to regulate the fuel, there is speculation that a nuclear meltdown is possible. At this point, events in Japan bear many similarities to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. However as long as the reactor core, pressure and radiation, remains intact, the melted fuel can be dealt with. And with a bit of luck the wind direction could carry the radioactive fallout into the sea.
In the last couple years Gaddafi used the African continent to raise his international PR campaign. He has built up a network with other countries in Africa. Most of these relations are based on commercial or political interests and are limited to the Sahel region. So although Libya has a certain degree of influence on some African countries. It's not a dominant influence but still the absence of Libyan involvement could have some consequences.
Special thanks to the director, Murad Ibragimbekov. It is in this region were the first petroleum industry was founded in 1848. Within a few years the technology in extracting oil was revolutionized. At the turn of the 20th century, the city of Baku accounted for half of the world's production and dominated international markets. This is their legacy.
Saudi Arabia has sent more than a thousand soldiers to Bahrain. More troops are expected to arrive from the United Arab Emirates. This indicates that the military and police forces of Bahrain can no longer guarantee to contain the unrest. It also shows that the gulf Arab countries are not only concerned about domestic unrest but are also concerned for unrest in other gulf states. Because unrest can quickly spread throughout the Arabian Peninsula. So the Arab countries will cooperate and intervene in each other's countries to keep the region stable. As these troops pour into Bahrain it is likely that the king of Bahrain, will enforce martial law to contain the unrest.
What are the ups and downs of hydrocarbon, nuclear and space solar based energy? Hydrocarbon power is expensive, pollutive and has many geopolitical chokepoints. With nuclear energy there is always a small chance for a global disaster. The best alternative is renewable energy, especially space solar energy. In space there are no clouds in space, there is no day and night cycle and there is plenty of room. By placing solar collectors above the atmosphere, it will be at least 14 times more effective then land based solar collectors.
The leadership of Yemen has declared a state of emergency after a bloody crackdown on protesters in the capital Sanaa. The opposition in Yemen is based on unemployed youth, regular laborers, students, Islamists, socialists, Salafists and even some tribesmen with political ambitions. Thereby the opposition is very fractured but united in their common goal to oust president Ali Abdullah Saleh from office. However Saleh has deep roots in the regime. The intelligence apparatus, political and business elite are all dominated by Saleh's family members, also known as the Sanhan tribe.
The Saudis are fighting a proxy war with Iran in Bahrain. While also trying to contain the Shia protests in the eastern parts of the country. Now with Iranian backing a third front of Shia uprising opens in the Arabian Peninsula. Yemen, with a Shia population who make up 45% of the population, could get drawn into a civil war. Add to this equation the various power ambitious tribal leaders who see a 'window of opportunity' amidst the chaos. With this many faction fighting each other, Yemen is in serious crisis. And it is exactly these kinds of moments that Al-Qaeda has the most opportunities.
The death of Osama bin Laden is the greatest achievement of the CIA of the past decade. The next question is whether his death has symbolic or tactical value? The symbolic value is obvious. But unlike other military organizations. Al-Quada is not a hierarchy. Bin Laden was just one of the several leaders of the organization, that's why his death will have little tactical meaning. Aside from al-Quada, this event will also have geopolitical implications. And it will influence American and Pakistani relations. It could also have consequences for the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Russia is dealing with a major demographic crisis. Low birth rates, high death rates and an increase of mortality rate is taking its toll on the Russian population. Not to mention the increase of divorces, abortions, alcoholism, narcotics and communicable diseases. Forecasts predicted that the Russian population will decrease to around 125 million by 2025. And possibly even going below 100 million by 2050. By 2020 Russia will lose 30% of its population, this could become a turningpoint in Russian history.
Osama bin Laden, world's most wanted man, was hiding in plain sight for almost six years in close vicinity to Pakistan´s main army training academy. Was Pakistan conspiring with al-Qaeda or had they genuinely overlooked the compound? If the Pakistani army was really unaware of Bin Laden's hiding place, than it was probably because finding Bin Laden was not a top priority. But if the Pakistani army did know about the compound, than they likely kept the civilian government in the dark. This highlights the internal struggle in Pakistan between the civilian Pakistani politicians and the military and security apparatus.
Pakistan is a county with internal struggle. On the one side you have Pakistani politicians and on the other side you have the military and security apparatus. But the country also has a nuclear arsenal. Its also in a conflict with India over Kashmir. And it plays a central role in the war against terrorism. As a result, US policy towards Pakistan has been dominated by concerns for its stability. That's why Washington has always backed the Pakistani military's interventions in domestic politics. This was all at the expense of the Pakistani democratic institutions. Today Pakistan faces a crumbling economy and Taliban insurgency. More than half its population faces severe poverty, which fuels resentment against the government and feeds political instability. Without US assistance, Pakistan could become the world´s first nuclear-armed failed state.
Unlike the United States, China has to contend with strong regional rivals. Just think of Japan, Russia, and India. Even the smaller neighbors are no pushovers: Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam; they will put a lot of weight on the Chinese military and economic resources just to defend the Chinese territorial integrity. At best China will be an economic superpower and it will take place as one of the world's leading trading powers. But the economic and military resources of Beijing will always be stretched thin. It has to devote enormous amount of military resources just to defend its territorial integrity from its internal fragilities and external rivals.
The Israeli Arab conflict is the result of interactions of superpowers in the early 20th century. British and French strategic interests in the Middle East were related to the Mediterranean trading route, which went from the Suez channel to Indian markets. But the presence of the Ottoman navy based in the Levant was a direct threat to British interests. So the British and the French decided to divide the Middle East into smaller entities and countries to make it impossible for the Ottoman Empire to control them all. A century later, the legacy of European colonization of the Arab world is reflected by its many ongoing conflicts
The collapse of the Soviet Union triggered many ethnic conflicts throughout the Eastern Europe and Asia. One of the most horrific conflicts was the Nagorno-Karabakh War. Armenia with the support of Russia invaded neighboring Azerbaijan and occupied some 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory - known as Karabakh. The conflict claimed the lives of some 30.000 people and left more then a million people displaced in Azerbaijan. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan suffered heavy losses. This report contains unique footages of mountainous warfare from the perspective of the soldiers - the Lenkeran Battalion.
he death of the former Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, marks the next phase for the National Transitional Council of Libya, forming a transitional government. However this will be a very hard to accomplish because Libya is a country with various factions. To make things worse, these factions are now armed to the teeth and they all want a significant stake in the new government. Its very difficult to reach a peaceful agreement when the stakes are so high and when all factions are heavily armed. The Transitional Council is unlikely to simply take control where Gaddafi left off.
Once the US finishes the withdrawal process from Iraq and Afghanistan, they will have to deal with a complete different Russia then before 2001. Aside this, German-Russian relations are expanding and so too will the Polish-American relations. The alliances left behind from the cold war era will no longer function in the 21st century. Cold War institutions such as NATO and the IMF will diminish. In the next ten years these new realities will sink in and we will see many new conflicts arise.
The European Union is an ambitious concept but it was broken by the financial crisis of 2008. The financial crisis can be summed up as the aftershock effect of the Iraqi war and cheap money produced by the Federal Reserve, and mismanagement by international banks. But the financial crisis was also a test for the European Union, a test they failed. The crisis redefined the boundaries of the state and corporations. Aside economic consequences the financial crisis also had political consequences
The Financial Crisis of 2008 was an economic bubble that reached its limits and exploded. A bubble is simply where prices continue to rise beyond the true value. People buy, simply because they believe everybody else is going to buy. A bubble is based on speculation, expectation and ignorance. When these three elements collide it creates a crisis, which is often defined by irrational financial exuberance. The causes of the economic crisis of 2008 are related to the Bush administration's attempt to finance the war in Iraq with, basically, inflation. The Federal Reserve cooperated by financing the Iraqi war, by essentially lending money to the American state.
Late at night on January 19, 1990, about 26.000 Soviet troops stormed Baku, the capital of Soviet Azerbaijan. The troops were supported by tanks and other armored vehicles. They blocked all the major roads and then airborne troops were dropped down on the city from airplanes. This was followed by a naval blockade. The Soviet army was acting pursuant to a state of emergency declared by the USSR Supreme Soviet Presidium, signed by President Gorbachev. However it was only disclosed to the public only after many citizens lay wounded or dead in the streets, hospitals and morgues of Baku. More than 130 people were killed and between 700 and 800 civilians were wounded. Hundreds of people were detained. All of this happened exactly 22 years ago on January 20th 1990. This crackdown is better known as Black January. The massacre was intended as a warning to other independence and freedom movements, not only in Azerbaijan, but in the other Republics of the Soviet Union.
Despite the fact that Iran sits on some of the largest reserves of crude oil, Iran still import a third of its gasoline to keep up with domestic demand. This has to do with Iran's lack of oil refineries and growing population. So sanctions on gasoline is the Achilles' heel of Iran, and it could have devastating effects on the Iranian government. Any form of "crippling sanctions" against Iran will target Iran's gasoline imports. The only loophole is Russia. Moscow pursues its own interests and that is to keep the U.S. bogged down in the Middle East while Russia reasserts its influence in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Unless the U.S. can make concrete concession on Eurasia geopolitics, Russia will keep using Iran as a bargaining chip.
The Arab Spring is not yet over; it has evolved and it's much more complex than last year. Every nation and country is different and every state dealt differently with the unrest. In Tunisia and Egypt the leaders were quick to step down. Libya experienced a civil war, while the president of Yemen is leaving through a negotiated deal. The unrest in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia is not over yet and Syria has become a geopolitical battlefield. To make matters even more complicated the Iranians are exploiting religion in the region to expand their sphere of influence.
In the last 500 years the borders of Iran have remained more or less the same. This is because of the topographical barriers. The country is surrounded by thee mountainous borders and a coastline in the south. The center of the country is an uninhabitable wasteland. Iran's rough terrain brought forth the 16th century metaphor, "The walls of Iran". And despite Iran's growing regional influence, the country remains vulnerable from the inside. Although the country is also known as Persia, almost half of Iran's total population is actually non-Persian. Many of Iran's strategic regions are populated by ethnic minorities such as the Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Balochis and Arabs.
The modern day Iranian sphere of influence is actually very similar to the process that happened two millenia ago, when the Persian Empire was founded. In the ancient times the Persian armies conquered, Babylon, the capital of Mesopotamia. Only after this conquest were the Persians able to exert their power throughout the region. And with no regional power to oppose them, the Persians quickly established an empire that stretched from the Hindu Kush to the Sinai and it all started with Babylon. Names have changes but strategy remains the same and with the fall of Saddam and his Ba'ath Party, Tehran was quick to fill the gap of power. This triggered Iran's new sphere of influence.
Over night from February 25 to 26, 1992, Armenian armed forces with support of the Russian 366th regiment stormed Khojaly town firing by artillery, missiles and tanks. Town was blocked from three sides and people tried to escape to safe direction. But that was a trap. Near Nakhchivanik village the Armenians opened fire on unarmed people. Hundreds of children, women, elderly, frostbitten and weaken in the deep snow and mountain passes became the victims of brutality of Armenians. As a result 613 people were killed, among them: 63 children, 106 women, 70 elderly. It was the most notorious massacre in the Nagorno-Karabakh War.
As Al Assad's inner circle is cracking, so does Iran's proxy network in the Levant. The crisis in Syria has created the oppertunity for some Iranian proxies to distance themselfs from Tehran. Not wanting to end up on the bad side of a Sunni-led Syria, many pro-Iranian militant organizations are shifting towards the mainstream Sunni Arab consensus. This shift includes Hezbollah, Hamas and others which have formed the basis of Iran's proxy network in the Levant. As this new reality unfolds the geopolitics of the Levant changes along with it.
In the 14th century a Muslim historian named Ibn Khaldun wrote about the pattern of history. Farmers would build irrigation systems supporting villages and towns. Later some warrior would bring these towns under his rule and form a united political entity, like a kingdom or an empire. Then a tribe of nomads would come along and conquer the kingdom, seize all the holdings and settle in their place and further expand the new empire. As time went by the nomads would assimilate and become soft city dwellers. Exactly the kind of people they had conquered and at this point another tribe of nomads would come along and conquer them and take their empire.
From the 15th-16th century the Ottoman Empire was at its peak. Its realm streched from North Africa to Egypt to the Arabian Peninsula. Its holdings included the Levant, Mesopotamia, the Caucasus, the Crimea, and the Balkans all the way to the gates of Vienna. It was by far the largest empire in its time, and it was ahead of its competition in terms of science, production, military and culture. Yet a few centuries later this once mighty empire became the Sick Man of Europe.
Throughout history Greece's rugged geography has given the advantage to the Greeks when defending their homelands against invaders. While the mountainous terrain has its military advantages, it also comes with economic disadvantages. It makes a unified Greece difficult as the central government struggles for authority. The lack of arable land combined with the lack of land trading routes, has forced Athens to rely on the Mediterranean Sea for trade. As a country with some 6.000 islands, Greece needs to upkeep an advanced military force to defend its very core - the Aegean Sea. The sea allows for the Greek islands and cities to communicate, trade and defend themselves. Greece simply has to do whatever it takes to defend its core. Thats why the country also need to control over the islands of Corfu, Crete and Rhodes to prevent invasions from the sea.
The PKK was born as a reaction to the authotarian and racist policies of the Turkish republic in the early 1980s, Since then around 40.000 people have died. However the Turkey of today is so much different from the Turkey of the 1980s. Modern Turkey is an emerging powerhouse, one that has the potential to become a regional power. With this in mind Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party has for several years been working to neutralize the military's political influence, quell the Kurdish insurgency and to expand the party's political support. Whats interesting here is that these three goals are interconnected. By engaging in political negotiations with the PKK, the government was able to undermine the military's force-based approach to the conflict and thereby diminish the military's overall influence in Turkish politics.
After a nearly three-year standstill, Israeli Prime Minister apologized in a phone call to the Turkish Prime Minister for the Israeli raid on a Turkish vessel, that left 9 people dead. The Israeli side also agreed to provide compensation and lift some of the restrictions on the entry of civilian good into Gaza, as long as stability remained. Off course the US president played a major role in the reconciliation but the question now is what are the reasons behind it? And how will Turkish Israeli relations further develop?
North Korea has a long history of empty threats but also a history of action. The new leader Kim Jong Un is only 30 years old, and there are doubts about his ability to lead both inside and outside the country. Kim Jong Un needs to demonstrate his authority by orchestrating an international crisis, with South Korea and the United States, to restart the negotiations and then finally walk away with new political benefits. This strategy has its limits and although they seem unpredictable - Pyongyang has been very careful not to step out of line. But what if North Korea became desperate and a war broke actually broke out?
As the fictional Game of Thrones launches its third season a different game of intrigue is unfolding in Saudi Arabia. In this report we take a look at the history of the Saudi dynasty and its key pillars. We ask important questions, who will be the third in line once King Abdullah passes away? As the second generation princes, who have ruled the country for most of its 80 year history, are now few in numbers, its likely that a third generation prince will enter the game of thrones. A critical evolution in the House of Saud. This new chance will further divide the ongoing divisions rivalries in the Saudi dynasty. It will also put uncertainty on a key pillar, unity among the leadership
Both Koreas started out or more or less equal grounds. Both the countries were devastated, the South had a larger workforce but the North had more natural resources and industries. And for the first couple decades the North Korean economy actually performed better than the South Korean economy. So what changed all this? And why did North Korea become such a poor country? Most people will tell you that North Korea is poor because the sanctions are working. Or that it has to do with the fact that the country is communist. In this report we take a closer look at the history of North Korea's economy.
South Korean satellites picked up mobile missile systems being moved to the east coast of North Korea. The missiles in question are medium and long range ballistic missile systems. But it's not certain whaich missiles they are. It could be the KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missiles also known as Hwasong-13 or it could be Musudan intermediate range ballistic missiles. This kind of mobile missile systems are really meant for surprise attacks, something that stationary launch sites cannot do. Mobile system are harder to locate and once launched its harder to calculate the launch time, the missiles trajectory and direction. So the US will have to deploy significant missile defense systems in order to cover for the potential targets.
The ongoing conflict in Northern Mali is rooted in the country's geography and its history. The Niger River forms the backbone of the country and it essentially splits the country in two. The arid North, also known as Azawad, is home to the nomadic Tuareg people who share ethnic ties the Berber people. The South is a relative fertile region and is home to the Mandee people, a cultural group of people that populate the West African region. Both ethnic peoples form the core of Mali's history but both played a completely different role
Generational change has been postponed again in Saudi Arabia, and the appointment of Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz to the position of second deputy prime minister behind Crown Prince Salman has postponed the generational change in Saudi Arabia. The inner circle of princes that has run the kingdom for half a century will retain power and although the Saudi kingdom's succession process is clear for the foreseeable future, the real challenge and the possible succession crisis has only been delayed for a few years.A failure to solve this issue before the death of King Abdullah could very well start a inner crisis in the Saudi Dynasty
Tensions are high in the Korean Peninsula but does North Korea's new leader, Kim Jong Un, really want to start a war? As Robert McNamara, former United States Secretary of Defense put it "empathize with your enemy." How can North Korea back down on its threats and still "save face?" In this report we focus on the escalation from Pyongyang's perspective. Whats the North Korean grand strategy? And what does Kim Jong Un hope to accomplish by making threats?
In the 18th century Europe's influence was growing. This was most notable in the Islamic world. As a response to this, many new Islamic scholars, activists and ideologist attempted to reform their societies and nations so they could prevent the growing presence of Europe. One of those reformists was Jamal ad-Din al-Afghani, his ideas preached of a modern state guided by Islamic principles. Although he was unsuccessful, his work strongly influenced the minds of thousands of activists, and one of those peoples was Hassan al-Banna, who would later on lay the foundation of the Muslim brotherhood. In this report we take a look at the Muslim Brotherhood and its origins. How did this group expand throughout the region and what are its core principles? Are they attempting a world conquest or are they democratic?
In this book review we explore Wired For War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century, a best-selling book by Peter W. Singer. The book explains the influence of science fiction on the modern day battlefields. There is a lot of background information on the history of robotics and how it developed throughout the decades. The author obviously did a lot of research, and it shows. There are dozens of interviews with notable figures such as scientists, insurgents, politicians, etc, who are considered specialists in their respective fields. In this report we take a look at how Singer's work gives us insight on the future of warfare
For more than two years a brutal civil war has decimated the state of Syria. Clashes between government and rebel forces have taken place in towns and cities across the country, and neither parties have shown any signs of backing down. So far Europe and the United States have stayed out of the conflict, but now even that is in question. In the recent weeks things have changed and there are growing concerns that al-Assad may have used chemical weapons and this brings us to the question, should the US intervene in Syria, what are the arguments support it and what are the arguments to abandon this strategy
Ever since two Chechen brothers were implicated in the Boston bombings, people have been going through history books to see what is distinctive about Islam in the Caucasus. To understand Chechens you must first understand where they come from, the Caucasus and its mountains. In the same way that the Atlantic ocean influenced the British and the Frontier formed the Americans, the Caucasus mountains developed the Caucasian peoples. In this report we talk about the history of the North Caucasus and the role Chechens played in it. Chechen history is a story of violance, genocide and persecution, mixed with determination and faith.
Despite what most people think, terrorism is not really about mass murder. The primary goal of a terrorist attack is to strike fear and panic in the heart and minds of oridinary civilians. It's all about the psychological impact rather the physical damage. In this report we look at the reality of terrorist organizations and how sophisticated they really are. Furthmore we discuss how media exposure contributes to fearmongering.
With fast- growing industries, India’s economy ranks among the top in the world. Its population, numbering around 1.2 billion, is still growing. In this analysis, we will take a peek at the domestic and foreign policy of India.
The protests in Turkey, that initially started as a peaceful environmentalist demonstration, has now spread into anti-government protests across the country. In this report we explore the underlying reasons why so many people are upset with the government. And how many unrelated minor issues have unified various opposition groups under an umbrella movement
Sometimes the fall of one empire has unintended consequences and gives rise to another empire. In this report we look at how the Napoleonic Wars and the collapse of the French Empire laid the seeds for the German unification and gave rise to the British Empire. But we also look at how the British lost power and how the United States replaced the British Empire
Heart of Darkness is a short novel by Joseph Conrad. In facts it is so short you could finish reading it in just a few hours. But dont take the shortness for simplicity. This is a real meaningful novel that describes the European colonization and exploitation of Africa in late 19th century
Egypt's security forces are still clashing with Muslim Brotherhood supporters as we speak. And aside the military coup, and the detention of Muhammed Morsi, the top figures of the Brotherhood have also been taken into custody. And they will probably be charged with inciting violance during the mass demonstrations in Cairo. But aside all these recent developments several pro-Brotherhood institutions have been shut down, the Islamist dominated Shura Council has been dissolved too, so there a systematic crackdown on the organization, and the question remains what is next not just for the Muslim Brotherhood and the opposition forces but, what is next for Egypt in general?
Prominent US and European officials are accusing the Syrian President Al-Assad of using chemical weapons against a civilian population. And with this in mind the American President is on the verge to take military action against Syria. So how would such a scenario play out and what kind of repercussions and blowback effects should we take into consideration?
While in London, US secretary of state, John Kerry made a rhetoric suggestion that the only way for Syria to avoid a US attack would be for it to place all its chemical weapons under international supervision within a week. This was immediately followed by the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, who promised to start working with Damascus to realize this idea. So right now, the Russian proposal is welcomed by Syria, Germany, the UK, and even the US is onboard. It seems like a great catastrophe has been averted and its all thanks to the ingenious Russians. Although this might be a genuine exit strategy for the US, the practicality of this proposal is much more complex.
For months now Russia has been the main defender of Al-Assad. The country has put its international reputation at stake, and all this for Syria. So what drives Russia to confront the US. Why does Moscow care about Syria or Al-Assad? Well the truth is they really dont. Russia has no particular interests for Syria, and they dont care much for Al Assad either. The Russian naval facility in Syria and the weapons exports are only symbolic interests. In this report we explain how Putin's interests in Syria are indirectly related to Russia's backyard project - the Eurasian Union
Before the demonstrations in Syria escalated into a civil war, the geopolitics was simple. And Turkey's interests were simply, prevent Iran's sphere of influence expanding into Syria, and thereby getting a direct access to the Mediterranean Sea. Now, after years of full scale warfare, the civil war is being overshadowed by a proxy war. And things get more complicated with a proxy war. Its not just about weakening Iran anymore, but the interests of Turkey now, also include preventing Kurdish separatism and the rise of Sunni jihadism
Since the 1st century BC, the Romans and Parthians had waged a number of wars that lasted for the centuries. In fact these military campaigns outlasted the empires themselves. Both the Roman and Parthian Empires reformed and were replaced by the Byzantine and Sassanid Empires, respectively. These two new superpowers continued their territorial disputes and military confrontations for centuries.
More than 4.000 civilians have been killed in Iraq this year alone. This is the highest death toll since the end of the civil war in 2007. But unlike the previous attacks, which targeted governmental institutions, these new series of attacks primarily target civilians. Equally important is the fact that most of these attacks were conducted by al-Qaeda, who's strategy it is to plunge Iraq back into a Sunni-Shia civil war, and amidst the anarchy and disunity, rise as the dominant faction. Just like what happened with the rise of jihadists in the Syrian civil war.
The Saudi interests in the Syrian civil war is to push Iran's influence out of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq altogether. Saudi Iranian relations have been tense ever since Iran's Islamic revoultion in 1979. But the relations took a turn for the worse, with Iran's role in the US-Iraq war in 2003. By disassembling the Iraqi army and Saddam's Ba'ath party, the US created a power vacuum in Iraq which was quickly filled by pro-Iranian figures. And for the first time in a long time, a pro-Shiite state now bordered the Saudi Kingdom. This made the Saudis very anxious, because they too have a sizable Shiite communities, and they feel that this rise of Shiasm, could very well spread to their own country (especially in the oil rich gulf region). This is something Riyadh cannot tolerate.
For those of us who have been following the unrest in Ukraine, the last couple of days have been quite hectic. Kiev is in turmoil, Lviv has proclaimed its desire for independence, ethnic Russian separatism is rising in Crimea and the Euromaiden demonstrations have so far claimed the lives of more than a hundred people. The country is broken, falling apart and fragmenting into smaller entities, some analysts are calling Ukraine the next Yugoslavia. But what exactly is so special about this country? Why are the Europeans even in Ukraine? And what are Russia's interests in Kiev?
It has been a very busy few days for Ukraine's parliament. They just reinstated the 2004 constitution, which basicly turns Ukraine back to a parliamentary system rather than a presidential one. The parliament also appointed a new interior minister and speaker of the parliament (both which are part of the Fatherland Party, led by the recently freed Yulia Tymoshenko), and now the parliament is moving to impeach measures against former President, Viktor Yanukovych. Or should I say current president? Because even before the impeachment proces started, the parliament dismissed Yanukovych, on grounds that he was incapable of fulfilling his presidential duties.
When Yanukovych came to power in 2010, he led the charge against Tymoshenko for abuse of power. The accusation was that her energy negotiations with Russia were based on her personal interests, and there is certainly some truth to the story. I personnally think that both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko had huge corrupt dealings. But in essence this was a politicelly motivated trial, because Yanukovich nullified his political opponent. And what happened next is even more important, European leaders rallied behind Tymoshenko and condemned it as political persecution. And many of Europe's biggest media entrerprises depicted Tymoshenko as a pro-Western hero, when in fact she never was pro-West, for that matter she wasnt pro-Russian either.
Remember how optimistic the media was during the Arab Spring? For some reason people were expecting the new governments to endorse freedom, liberty and democracy. And remember how disappointing and violent the Arab Spring turned out to be? The thing is, revolutions are hard to predict, endless media exposure gives the idea that we know what is taking place in the streets, but from past experiences we should know by now that it's often misleading. For example in case of the Euromaidan, did the crowd truly represent every segment of Ukrainian society?
With most of the media focusing on Ukraine, it's easy to overlook the protests in Venezuela, and it's just as easy to assume that both countries face the same issues. In both cases the demonstrators demanded the resignation of the president, but that's were the similarities end. To understand the ongoing protest movement in Venezuela we need to go back to April 2013 when Nicolas Maduro won the presidential election by a one percent difference. The opponent Henrique Capriles refused to accept the results of the election, claiming that there were election irregularities, like ballot stuffing and coerced voting. But the National Elections Council dismissed the calls for a complete review of the allegations. And so the opposition and the government were set on a collision course.
Venezuela has been hit by a wave of economic problems, with the two most pressing issues being the high inflation and the scarcity of goods. Although they are mentioned separately, these two issues are actually interwoven. In this report we look at how Venezuela's state-run foreign currency exchange bureau, the CADIVI, took measures to fight capital flight by imposing artificial currency rates in 2003. And how this currency bubble is linked to the high inflation and the scarcity of commodities.
In the last couple of weeks the US government promised tough sanctions against Russia. President Barack Obama authorized the Treasury Department to prepare for potential sanctions that would freeze the assets of Russian officials and Secretary of State John Kerry elaborated that the other measures include, trade sanctions, a visa ban for politicians and suspending Russia from the G8 summit. But what exacly do these proposed measures entail and just how effective can they be?
Most people think that totalitarianism destroys all forms of art and culture. In fact that's one of the characterizations of totalitarianism. And in a way that's true, but what the author of Totalitarian Art, Igor Golomstock, explains is that totalitarian regimes also promote their own distinctive form of art, off course this comes with a political agenda
One of the very foundations of political science is the principle that geography determines destiny. In the same way that the British Isles determined the naval culture, and the frontier affected the American culture, Russia too, can be defined by its geographic characteristics. The most obvious element of Russia's geography is its enormous size. However, the truth is that Russia's size is both an advantage as well as a liability. The very core of the Russian Federation, the Moscow region, is simply indefensible. There are no mountainous ranges; no rivers or oceans, there are no swamps or deserts. Only the forests of Moscow and the inhospitable climate can be defined as geographic obstacles. The only thing the Russians can do in event of an invasion is to drag out the war and bleed the enemy out. It is for this reason that Russia's history is largely about surviving invasion after invasion.
Back in the final days of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union negotiated an agreement. The Soviets would withdraw from Eastern Europe and dismantle the Warsaw Pact, and in return the Americans would stop the NATO expansion and the encirclement of the Soviet Union. Both sides were to ease the tensions and build up relations. However, what happened next was that the Soviet withdrawal from Eastern Europe triggered a series of nationalist revolts throughout the USSR. The unintended consequence here was the break-up of the Soviet Union. In the aftermath of this collapse, NATO quickly moved into the former Warsaw Pact member states and even expanded into the former Soviet states in the Baltics. From the perspective of the new NATO members, joining the alliance made sense, given their past experiences with the Soviet Union. But from Russian perspective this was an utter betrayal.
In the first part of Russia's geopolitics we talked about the external objectives of the Kremlin, and how these objectives shape Russia's foreign policy. Equally important are Russia's internal dynamics, and the answer to this is connected with the historic decisions that transformed Russia into a centralized autocratic empire. As unpleasant that empire was, that is how Putin's administration is governing the country today. Even though a decentralized Russia which endorses freedom and liberty can theoretically exist, the last and only time Russia attempted to form a democratic and free society was during the Yeltsin era in the 1990s. That era is remembered for the great economic depression, massive urban migration and the nationalist religious secessionist movements in North Caucasus, which nearly broke Russia apart. For the Russians, this was evidence that Western values and principles could not work in Russia.
Babur Nama or Memoirs of Babur, is considered a novel, a journal, a historic document, whatever it may be, it is the remarkable story of Zahir-ud-din Muhammad Babur, a descendant of the Mongol conqueror Genghis Khan and the Turkic conqueror Tamerlane. And more importantly Babur was the founder of the Mughal Empire. Yes, this is a five hundred year old journal. Originally written in Turkic Chagatai, a language that is now extinct; it has since been translated into dozens of languages. Babur Nama is one of the earliest examples of autobiographies in the world. In fact it's one of the finest ever written. It presents a precise and a vivid picture of late medieval life in Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent. It is the true story of an impoverished yet highly educated king who, against all odds, established one of the greatest dynasties the world had ever seen
Russia supplies more then 25 percent of Europe's hydrocarbon needs. Ever since the natural gas cutoffs in 2006 and 2009, the European countries have been searched for ways to reduce their dependency on Russian oil and natural gas. In this context, the crisis in Ukraine has sparked a new drive for the search for alternative sources of energy. One project that is of particular interest, but underappreciated in the media, is the Trans-Caspian pipeline. If realized it would significantly change the energy map of Europe in the long term.
Saudi Arabia is globally recognized for three things. One, deserts form a major part of the geography, two the country is a top producer of oil and three, the country has a fiercely conservative government and society. But the third notion is not necessarily true and is subject to change and that change is now knocking on Saudi Arabia's door. Because even though the government has conservative regulations, that forbid basic women's rights, there is also a growing segment of the society that is asking for change. Especially among the youth of the country. But this reformist view is also shared by many of the top figures in the House of Saud. Despite all of this, the country has not implemented any meaningful change. So what exactly is holding Saudi Arabia back?
As the crisis in Ukraine continues, countries in Russia's immediate proximity are being confronted with difficult choices. That is to join NATO or not. This debate is especially notable in Sweden and Finland. Where public support for the alliance has risen. A survey in Finland showed that support for NATO membership increased from 20 percent in 2013 to 22 percent in 2014. A similar survey was held in Sweden, which showed an increase from 30 percent to 36 percent in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Now it's important to note that these numbers vary slightly from poll to poll, but one thing is certain, the overwhelming majority in both countries opposes joining NATO. And it is for this reason that both countries have held no referendum's regarding this subjects, simply because the local political parties fully know, they would lose such a referendum. Those who do support joining NATO argue that the alliance would protect Finland or Sweden from Russia.
The Rise of Turkey: The Twenty-First Century's First Muslim Power by Soner Cagaptay is an excellent geopolitical book about Turkey. You might ask yourself why Turkey? Turkey is perhaps one of the most underappreciated countries in the field of geopolitics. Many people will look at Turkey and see just another NATO member with no significant foreign policy of it’s own. But the truth is Turkey has historically been at the centre of the Islamic world. The Ottoman Empire shaped the identity of Muslims, shaped their cultures, economies, and social structures for the good and bad.
In the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Saddam Hussein, the man who ruled the country with an iron fist, was captured. He was then executed by the new Iraqi government. However despite what most people believe, taking out Saddam wasn't the problem, taking out his political party - was. In June 2003, the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority of Iraq banned the Iraqi Ba'ath party and all its members. This was the most ill-conceived decision in the whole invasion of Iraq affair, as it completely upset the fragile balance of power that existed in the Middle East.
Back in the month of September the American President, Barack Obama, said that the US intends to destroy the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS for short. Obama managed to assemble an impressive coalition against ISIS, including countries such as France, Germany, the UK and even Saudi Arabia. But at the same time the coalition lacks certain key players. Notably Iran and Turkey. Furthermore the coalition’s military interventions are limited to airstrikes. So just how feasible is the military intervention against ISIS. And what will put an end to the transnational jihadist threat.
Of all the recent books about the Russian president, Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In and Out of Love with Vladimir Putin by Ben Judah stands out for a number of reasons. First of all it’s not quite a biography but instead it’s more like a history book with the Vladimir Putin as the central character. Second, unlike many other books on Russia, the author Ben Judah, actually travels throughout Russia and early on establishes that Moscow isn’t Russia. Instead Moscow is a multicultural metropolis that is completely disconnected from the impoverished small towns and cities where most Russians live. So the book underlines the growing gap in the Russian society.
Ever since the independence of the Republic of Turkey, the military faction has played a decisive role in the politics, economics and society of the country. During the 1960s, 1970s and the 1980s, the military ensured the secular nature of the republic through a series of military coups. And eventhough the role of the Turkish military has diminished since the rise of the Justice and Development Party under the leadership of Erdogan, the rise and fall of the Turkish military is part of the geopolitical objectives of a reasserting Turkey.
Yesterday morning, three masked gunmen stormed the headquarters of the French satire magazine Charlie Hebdo. The attackers forced one of the cartoonists to open the door with a security code. They then headed straight towards the paper’s editor, Stephane Charbonnier, better known as Charb, who was in an editorial staff meeting. During the encounter the gunmen killed Charb, his bodyguard, and many more journalists. Minutes later the attackers left the building and shot a police officer and escaped with a vehicle. In the end, ten journalists and two police officers were killed, resulting in the deadliest terrorist attack on French soil in fifty years. Representatives of ISIS quickly praised the massacre as an act of revenge for the magazine’s insults against Islam and the Prophet Muhammed. But a closer look at the long term implications reveals a more complex and profound motive that is meant to shake Europe and radicalize European muslims.
In a previous CaspianReport, released back in 2011, we argued about the likelihood of a civil war in Yemen and that the Iranian back Houthi rebellion would trigger a new front in the ongoing Saudi-Iranian cold war. The other fronts being Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Now that Yemen is once again on the brink of civil war, and facing a Zaidi-Shia led uprising in the North and an al-Qaeda led uprising in the South, all the while being bombed by neighboring Arab states, let’s take a step back and look at the origins of the current crisis.
After 42 hours overtime, the Iran nuclear negotiations with the United States, Russia, China, France, Great Britain and Germany reached a framework deal in Lausanne, Switzerland. In return for lifting the sanctions, which means more than $110 billion a year relief for Tehran and a return to the global economic market, Iran will be significantly constrained in its nuclear programme. This is the framework agreement, meaning the formal deal will be signed before July 1st. Over the next three months, the technical details will have to be worked out, but what does the Iranian nuclear deal really mean?
The core religious allegory of Islam starts with Muhammad’s revelations in the caves and ends with the death of the fourth successor Ali, almost forty years later. The allegory is analogous to the Last Supper, the Crucifixion, and the Resurrection of Jesus Christ in Christianity. During Muhammad’s lifetime, his community gained control over the Arabian Peninsula. Though he passed away in 632, Islam’s story continued through his four closest followers: Abu Bakr, Umar, Uthman, and Ali, who together formed the Rashidun, or Rightly Guided One’s. Together, they established the first Islamic state, the Caliphate. In just thirty years, the Rashidun Caliphate conquered all of Persia, Egypt, Mesopotamia, the Levant, and even parts of the Byzantine Empire in Anatolia.
Just a few days ago King Salman of Saudi Arabia passed a series of royal decrees meant to smoothen the transition of power from the second-generation princes to the third-generation princes. Salman will be the last king of the second generation as he replaced his half-brother Muqrin bin Abdulaziz with Muhammad bin Nayef as Crown Prince. Furthermore, Salman’s favourite son, Muhammad bin Salman, was appointed as the new Deputy Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. These and a dozen more cabinet and governmental changes were publicly announced in the early morning hours of 29th April. At first glance, most of the decisions make sense, as the country was bound to shift from the second generation to the third generation. However a closer look at the events reveals that underneath the reforms, King Salman had ulterior motives, including the strengthening of his own clan, the next generation of Sudairis.
In the first part of the History of Islam, we discussed the succession to Muhammad and the birth of the Caliphate under the leadership of Abu Bakr. The formation of the Caliphate was not easy, and the newly elected Caliph faced a secessionist rebellion throughout Arabia. He overcame the rebellion, but his reign lasted for only two years. Before Abu Bakr’s death, however, he nominated his trusted military advisor Umar as a candidate for the Caliph. The ‘Ummah’ and the council of elders were stunned because Abu Bakr and Umar could not have been more different.
The general elections in Turkey finished with the Justice and Development Party, or the AKP for short, suffering decisive losses as they no longer form the single dominant party in the Turkish parliament. The AKP is still the largest party with 40.8% of the votes and 258 seats, but that is 18 seats too few to govern alone. The game changer here is the victory of the Kurdish People’s Democratic Party, or the HDP, which is a left-wing party led by Selahattin Demirtas. His party won 13.1% of the votes and 80 seats, which is above the Turkish parliamentary threshold. Thus, for the first time, the long-repressed Kurdish minority will be properly represented in the parliament.
In the first and second parts of the History of Islam, we talked about the establishment of the Caliphate by the First Caliph, Abu Bakr, and the expansion and implementation of reforms by the Second Caliph, Umar. Before Umar’s death, a committee known as the ‘Shura’ was established with the purpose of selecting a new Caliph and seeking the approval of the Muslim community, known as the ‘Ummah’. In the next election, the two leading candidates were Uthman and Ali. In the end, Uthman was elected as the Third Caliph. Even though Uthman was, in his own words, “not an innovator”, he certainly was a reformer.
Nigeria is located in western Africa on the Gulf of Guinea. The country’s size is comparable to that of Venezuela, or twice the size of the US state of California. But unlike either of these comparisons, Nigeria’s population level is many times higher. With about 178 million people, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous in the world. However, not all Nigerians speak the same language or share the same ethnicity.
At the request of al-Assad’s government, Russia has started an air strike campaign over Syria. Moscow stated that they would target extremist groups such as ISIS, but so far the air strikes have mainly targeted NATO-supported rebels. Even though most of the mainstream media has put a negative spin on the Russian air strikes, one thing must be put into perspective: None of the external actors involved in the Syrian conflict are in it for the sake of the Syrian people, democracy or human rights. This is a geopolitical conflict, not a soap opera.
In the previous three episodes of the History of Islam, we described the first three Caliphs and their characteristics. We also discussed their most notable accomplishments and the ways in which they ruled the Caliphate. Abu Bakr, the wise community leader and the founder of the Caliphate, had died from a fever. Umar, the military thinker and the founder of Islamic jurisprudence, was stabbed in the stomach by a mentally disturbed Sassanid slave. And Uthman, the merchant, and the builder, was beaten to death in his study room by fellow Muslims. It was then Ali’s turn as Caliph, making him the fourth to take the title.
In the last couple of months, the media headlines have been dominated by the presence of refugees in major European cities. The rush of refugees to Europe has caused considerable diplomatic and domestic turmoil. Refugees from Syria, followed by African and Balkan nations, form the vast majority of the people seeking asylum. In most cases, the refugees pay large sums of money for a chance to reach Europe, and in many cases it’s a life risking gamble. The massive arrival of asylum seekers in Europe is not something new. Migration in and out of Europe has taken shape throughout history. However, the current human flow into Europe is different from historic migrations, and such unprecedented events carry with them economic and political repercussions that are shaking the European countries to their constitutional foundations. The most recognizable difference is the fact that the refugees are mostly from culturally distinct countries such as Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
On Friday evening, November 13th, seven, now identified, armed gunmen and suicide bombers attacked several targets in Paris, killing 130 civilians and wounding hundreds more. The attack was carried out by Muslim extremists, and ISIS quickly claimed responsibility for the attacks. However, five of the attackers were French citizens and two more were citizens of neighboring Belgium. The attacks have deeply shocked the French and European societies. So far it seems like the French response is limited to an increase in air strikes against ISIS controlled territories. At least, that is what it seems like on the surface. However, just like the 2005 London bombings and the 2008 Mumbai Attacks, there will be domestic and international consequences. As we delve deeper into this subject it will become clear that the Paris Attacks will have a profound long lasting impact on the European societies and institutions.
A few weeks ago, a Russian Su-24 fighter-bomber was shot by the Turkish Armed Forces near the border of Syria. It was the first time a NATO member admitted to shooting down a Russian warplane since the end of the Cold War. What exactly happened is disputed by the Turkish and Russian governments. Both sides have conflicting stories with many disputed technical details. However, what is clear is that a Russian warplane was shot down one way or another. Equally important, the Turkish General Staff acknowledged direct responsibility for shooting down the aircraft.
I am Malala recounts the early life of Malala Yousafzai, an eighteen-year-old Pakistani girl who speaks out for the country’s women and the right to education. Her book begins in 2012, with a group of teenage girls and teachers who were chatting on their bus ride from school. The midterm finals had just finished, and in their joy, the girls started singing a Pashto song. As the school bus drove along the country road and approached the town of Mingora, two men halted the bus and then suddenly entered the vehicle. One of them pulled out a gun and asked: “Which one of you is Malala?” None of the girls spoke, some out of loyalty and others out of fear. But unintentionally, their eyes turned to Malala. That’s how the gunmen knew she was the target. The man lifted his weapon, and at point-blank range, fired four shots at Malala. The first went through her left eye socket and out under her left shoulder. As she slumped forward, the other three bullets hit the girls next to her. As both men f
In 2016, we will see the continuation of conflicts and rivalries in the Middle East. More countries will get entangled in the Syrian Civil War, but we will also see a reemerging Turkey. The Saudi-Iranian rivalry will reach new heights and Israel will have to rethink its geopolitical position. Further North in Russia, the low oil prices will force Moscow to push hard for economic reforms. Financial changes will also occur in Europe, where many nations will struggle with their economies, which in turn will inspire the rise of nationalism. However, there are also exceptions such as Switzerland, where are important referendum could trigger a financial revolution. In this prognosis, we will go over the most likely diplomatic, economic and military outcomes for Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia in 2016. In Part 2, the prognosis will continue in East Asia, Africa, and the Americas.
In 2016, the territorial disputes in the South China Sea will continue to remain the focus of attention in Asia. An important decision by the international tribunal is expected, one that will greatly influence the dispute. China’s economic slowdown will lead to lower metal prices, which will have enormous consequences for commodity producing sectors. Furthermore in India, the country will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the world but the security issues with neighboring Pakistan will continue. Security will also play a big role in Libya, where the lack of a government will turn the country into a gateway for foreign fighters and arms headed to Central Africa. Aside this, a number of African nations will stand on the brink of civil war. But not everything is bad, in South America, Colombia is well on its way to peacefully settle a 50-year insurgency. And the new government of Argentina will begin addressing its financial problems through negotiations. Further North, the A
In the previous episodes of the History of Islam, we recounted the various developments that have shaped the core of Islamic identity. In episode one, we explained the foundation of the Caliphate by Caliph Abu Bakr. Following this, we described the territorial expansions and the origins of Islamic jurisprudence by Calip Umar. In the third episode, we recounted the evolution of the Islamic civilization by Caliph Uthman. And in the previous episode, we explained how the Islamic civil war between Caliph Ali and Governor Muawiyah laid the groundwork for the schism between Sunni and Shia Islam. Following Ali’s victory in al-Nahrawan against the radical Khawarij group. The latter planned the assassination of the Caliph. Two years later, a Kharijite follower stabbed Ali with a poisoned dagger. Ali passed away in a few days and his death left behind a power vacuum and a fragmented state.
On Saudi Arabia: Its People, Past, Religion, Fault Lines - and Future by Karen Elliott House explores the many dynamic perspectives of life in the Saudi kingdom. House, who is a former publisher of The Wall Street Journal, spent about thirty years traveling to the country, meeting with hundreds of princes, politicians, activists and conservatives. In her book, On Saudi Arabia, she discloses her experiences. Through observation, extensive interviews and even anecdotes, House analysis, what she refers to as, the Saudi labyrinth. The thing is that Saudi Arabia is not a modern totalitarian republic like the communist North Korea but rather a dictatorial regime with a fanatically conservative society. Of all the nations in the world, the Saudi kingdom is perhaps the most distinct country from the Western world. On Saudi Arabia reveals how this mysterious state, a top producer of oil and Muslim extremists attempts to balance oil revenues, the religious establishment and the disenfranchisemen
Roughly 33 million Iranians cast their votes on 26th February in two crucial elections: one to elect a new parliament and the other for a top clerical body, the Assembly of Experts. These are the first elections in Iran since the deal over the country’s nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions. And, as Western investors are beginning to return to Iran, a key issue in these elections is the economy. Iranians have high hopes for an improvement in daily life. That progress will come as Iran opens up to the outside world, just not as fast as expected. And even though President Rouhani and his allies made significant strategic gains in Iranian politics, the President and his allies still have a number of tasks ahead.
As abruptly as Russia began its military campaign in Syria nearly six months ago, President Putin has ordered the withdrawal of Russian military forces from the country. The President announced that the Russian military had accomplished their mission in Syria and that the estimated 3.000 to 6.000 Russian troops are to withdraw from the country. The process will take about 5 months. However, Putin is not completely abandoning al-Assad. The S-400 surface-to-air missile system, a number of military advisers and as many as two battalions or about 800 servicemen will remain in Syria, spread over two locations. Meaning, Russian forces will remain operational in the Bassel al-Assad air base in Latakia and the naval facility in Tartus. This unexpected move has many wondering why. Especially since for months, the Russian forces, backed by warplanes, missiles, and artillery pieces, have bolstered the al-Assad government. The opposition forces have been pushed back, and ISIS is weaker than it was
Years of talks between Washington and Havana resulted in Obama’s historic visit to Cuba on March 21st. Obama became the first US President to visit Cuba in 88 years. The normalization effort between the two countries began in December 2014 and was preceded by months of secret negotiations, facilitated by Pope Francis and largely hosted by Canada. Even though Obama’s visit to Cuba and his meeting with Raúl Castro marks a milestone in ending the five decades stretch of hostility between the countries, geopolitical relations are not restored with merely a handshake and a smile. However, presidential power only goes so far. For the full normalization of relations, Washington will have to lift its embargo against Cuba. And, Havana will have to conduct substantial financial and political reforms. Whether it’s the opposition in the US Congress or the Cuban military elite, both countries still have many obstacles to overcome.
On Sunday, April 3rd, a number of global media networks published articles based on the confidential leaked documents from the Panama-based law firm, Mossack Fonseca. The leak includes roughly 11.5 million documents or 2.6 terabytes of data. By comparison, the 2010 Wikileaks Cablegate was roughly 1.7 gigabyte, and the previous 2013 offshore leaks were 260 gigabytes. In short, the data leak, now known as the Panama Papers, is the largest in size. The Panama Papers reveal how some of the world’s most influential figures have used offshore bank accounts to avoid taxes or conceal their wealth. The list of people includes international politicians such as the Presidents Mauricio Macri, Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister David Cameron and even celebrities like Lionel Messi. What’s more is that the Panama Papers expose the level of corruption in the global financial system. In this report, we will explain what the Panama Papers are. We will also explore some of the geopolitical related records a
Azerbaijani and Armenian forces clashed on April 2nd along the line of contact in what is now referred to as the Four-Day War. Dozens on both sides were killed. The skirmish marks the most violent incident since the implementation of the 1994 Bishkek Protocol and its ceasefire agreement. In any conflict, truth is the first causality, and the fog of war makes it hard to sort out truth from propaganda. The situation in the Karabakh is especially murky because there are so few objective observers. To put things into perspective, the OSCE monitoring mission in Eastern Ukraine has nearly 700 monitors. Even in neighboring conflict areas such as South Ossetia and Abkhazia, there are 200 monitors. However, in Karabakh, the OSCE only has a handful of observers. Meaning, any event in the Karabakh conflict is subject to the nationalist propaganda by the authorities in Yerevan and Baku.
Australia is one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Its GDP per capita stands at 65.400 USD and ranks 14th worldwide. At the same time, it’s also one the most isolated countries in the world. And, it is this distance that gives the impression that Australia is security-wise invulnerable and irrelevant to the global geopolitical arena. Yet, for most of its history, Australia has participated in numerous military confrontations. Its soldiers have fought in Europe, Africa, and Asia. With the exception of World War II, none of these conflicts posed a genuine threat to the security of Australia. This begs the question, why has a wealthy and secure nation as Australia fought in so many wars? What has driven its leaders to send their bravest and brightest to far away frontlines? What has shaped the mindset of the Australian geopolitics? In this report, we explore this questions as well as the history of Australia. We can start by stating that the traditional perception of Australia as
For the past two decades, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has dominated the geopolitics of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Last month, in April 2016, a four-day-long skirmish erupted, which cost the lives of at least 200 soldiers. In a previous CaspianReport, we explained the geopolitical and military status quo. We also recounted how the conflict is a potential hot spot that could involve regional players such as Russia and Turkey. Given the geopolitical significance of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the lack of proper materials on the subject, in this report, we will go over the origins of the conflict.
More than thirty years after the Islamic revolution, Iran’s internal politics are still bewildering the mainstream media. For many, it’s still not even clear what form of government Iran has. The country is a republic, with elected institutions such as a parliament. Yet it’s also a theocracy, with a number of religious institutions. In theory, the mixture of divine rule and popular will could work. However, in practice, the system has transformed Iran into a kleptocracy with many factions fighting for power and influence at the expense of the wider population. In this report, we will delve into Iran’s version of the game of thrones and explained the country’s internal political power struggle.
In a historic nationwide referendum, nearly 52 percent of British voters chose to leave the European Union. Both the UK and the EU are now entering uncharted territories. For the first time in history, the EU will soon lose a member. Evidently, this will trigger a chain of events for the European bloc as well as the United Kingdom and far beyond. In this report, we will explain the outcome of the Brexit.
Turkish military personnel were deployed in numerous strategic checkpoints in Istanbul and Ankara on the night of July 15th. Tanks and armored vehicles have been seen near the military headquarters in Ankara and an explosion has taken place at the Turkish parliament building. In Istanbul, military blockades have been set up at the bridges over the Bosporus and civilians trying to cross have been fired upon. In both cities, gunfire and explosions have been reported and a fighter jet shooting down a helicopter has been sighted by witnesses. There are also reports of clashes between military units and police forces. Furthermore, the coup leaders have imposed martial law. In defiance of this ongoing coup, Erdogan has called upon citizens to come into the streets and protest. Much has happened in a very short span of time. In this report, we will look into the ongoing coup in Turkey and why it’s unlikely to succeed.
With the 2016 US presidential elections closing in, the debates have become increasingly precarious. The gap between honesty and dishonesty is vague. Both Clinton and Trump have been caught lying, concealing and spinning information in the duration of their presidential campaigns. Why Leaders Lie: The Truth About Lying in International Politics by John J. Mearsheimer provides a fresh new perspective on the reasons why politicians tend to deceive the public. The book was published back in 2011, so it doesn’t cover the current presidential elections. It does, however, provide a unique explanation on why and how politicians lie, conceal or spin information. The subject of political lies is not only extremely interesting but its relevance is as important as ever.
For many, Vladimir Putin is a strong decisive leader. An example to be emulated. Sometimes he seems nearly untouchable. Yet, strong leaders leave behind big shoes to fill. Currently, no one in Russia is qualified to replace Putin. In fact, the President himself may no longer be up to the challenge. Russian politics is often compared to a dogfight under a carpet. An outsider only hears the growling and when only one dog comes from beneath it’s obvious who won. At the moment, that’s exactly what’s happening in Russia. There is no mention of this in the mainstream media, but for the past few years, the elites have been in a rigorous power play. With the low energy prices and Western sanctions, resources are shrinking. The oligarchs and regional officials are fighting for scraps of power. Putin may be a brilliant politician but the Russia he has created is the new Sick Man of Europe.
Australia’s most distinct feature is its isolation. It’s a country, a nation, and a continent all in one. Its location and wealth give the impression that the country is secure and prosperous. Yet, the circumstances the country finds itself portray an entirely different picture. In this analysis, we will go over the modern geopolitical challenges of Australia.
The military coup in Turkey is over and President Recep Erdogan’s crackdown is in full swing. As of this writing, the government has already detained over 10.000 servicemen, among them more than 100 generals and admirals. Another 8.000 police officers have been sacked and nearly 3.000 judges and prosecutors have been dismissed. Furthermore, roughly 15.000 officials from the educational ministry and about 23.000 teachers have lost their jobs. The list is still expanding but thus far Erdogan’s purge has affected nearly 60.000 people. In Turkey, there is relief that the military takeover failed. However, there is also a surreal dark side as uncertainty looms over the country. In this report we will look at the consequences of the failed coup and what Erdogan’s purge will mean for Turkey and the region.
A series of violent protests is disrupting the stability in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir. What started out as the death of one militant commander has since escalated into a violent standoff between Indian security forces and local residents. As of the writing of this article, more than 60 people have been killed and over 7.000 civilians and 4.000 security personnel have been injured. In some places, the crisis has compelled the local authorities to impose a curfew. In other areas, telecommunications have been cut off, and many schools, colleges, and businesses have been closed. In this report, we will go over the historic context of the Kashmir conflict and address the underlying motives for the current crisis.
India’s economic growth in 2015 was a staggering 7.3 percent increase in GDP. Yet, the country cannot create enough jobs to lift its people from poverty. It has a labor force of 502 million people, yet 49 percent are employed in the agricultural sector, which only contributes to 14 percent of the country’s economy. These are the contradictions that Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to change under the Make in India project. This initiative seeks to transform India into a manufacturing hub for automobiles, electronic systems, and pharmaceuticals, as well as a hub for hydrocarbon and nuclear energy. This colossal task is the greatest economic reform in modern Indian history. It seeks to unleash the country’s true potential. Yet, change comes at a price. In this report, we will analyze the Make in India initiative and explain what obstacles the Prime Minister faces and how he intends to overcome them.
Under the Make in India initiative, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched the country’s greatest economic reform. In Part 1 of the Make in India report, we went over the labor laws, land acquisition legislation as well as the tax regimes, which Modi needs to adjust to increase foreign direct investment in India. Yet, economies run on energy. As India’s expands its economy, it will have to seek for more sources of energy. Moreover, an equally daunting challenge awaits the country’s agricultural and services sectors. In Part 2 of the Make in India report, we will go over these crucial components which will determine the success of the economic reforms.
Most people are caught up in globalization. They see economic progress and modernization as the most important tools shaping international affairs. Yet, when a revolution, an instance of political turmoil, or a sudden event erupts, the appreciation of geography helps to put the events into context. Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall is all about geopolitics. It describes how geography determines the limits of progress, cooperation, and political behavior. By looking at the past, present, and future, Marshall seeks to elevate the importance of geography within interactions of nations, ideologies, civilizations, economies, and militaries. So, if you’re puzzled about why Putin is obsessed with Ukraine, or why Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands, or why the Arab Spring started in Tunisia, or even why the United States is an exceptional superpower, the answers are all in this book.
The Arctic covers roughly 14 million square kilometers of water and solid ice. It’s almost the size of Antarctica. For most of its part, the region is inhospitable. In the summer, the weather can rise above the melting point, yet, in the winter, it can plunge down to minus 45 degrees Celsius. This situation, however, is not to last. In the coming decades, climate change will make the Arctic passages and resources become more accessible. Given the abundance of resources and critical trade routes, it should come as no surprise that the Arctic will turn into a new geopolitical flashpoint.
The Arctic is rich in hydrocarbon and mineral resources. The region also holds two essential trade passages that connect East Asia, North America, and Europe. In other words, there’s tremendous potential in the Arctic and climate change is forcing nations to reevaluate their national interests. In a previous report, we went over the region’s territorial claims, legal proceedings, and the fact that every Arctic nation has made claims in the Northern Hemisphere. The ongoing disputes are legally complicated, but no other country is as well prepared to dominate the Arctic as Russia.
Almost a month has passed since American voters chose their next president. Trump’s victory in the presidential elections represents a shift in American politics. However, to assume that Trump's campaign promises will dictate his actions would be a misconception. By filtering out the emotions as well as the political restrictions, we can calculate what the President can and cannot do. This methodology brings forth a certain degree of predictability for 2017. Now, Trump’s presidency will have global implications. We will go over these changes. However, in this episode we will focus on Trump’s legitimacy, the legal system, Obamacare, climate change, and more. In the second episode, we’ll talk about immigration, trade, and the relations between the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
Trump’s presidency will have profound economic and political consequences for North America. In the previous episode, we talked about the president’s bipartisan approval, the legal system, healthcare, climate change, and more. In Part 2 of the North American analysis for 2017, we will go over the remaining topics such as trade, immigration, and Washington’s relationship with neighbouring Canada and Mexico.
The Middle East is on fire. The traditional borders are becoming obsolete. The region is steadily fragmenting into factions defined by religion, economic interests, and kinships. But, if you thought that 2016 was a bad year, then brace yourself for 2017 as the region will undergo a geopolitical shift.
Western Europe has an important year ahead. Many EU member states will hold elections and carry out crucial political reforms. The Union will be tested from within by nationalist and populist forces. From without, factors such as immigration, security, and even the return of hundreds of radicals will create much anxiety in Europe. In Part 1 of the analysis, we go over the challenges that Western Europe faces in 2017. The next episode will focus on Eastern Europe and Russia.
A Q&A in celebration of reaching the 100.000 subscribers milestone. These questions were submitted on Patreon. Thank you all for everything!
Eastern Europe finds itself at a turning point. The NATO militarization in the Baltics, the standoff in Ukraine and Russia’s increasing internal complications are just a few of the geopolitical dilemma’s the region will face in 2017. Given the volatility of the situation, a lot can go wrong. Unpredictable events will occur, such as a sudden death or an attack. Therefore, this analysis focuses on the trends.
Africa is home to more than 1.2 billion people, 54 recognised states and thousands of ethnic groups. Yet, the continent is overwhelmed with geopolitical problems. From the rebels in Mali to the Chinese-backed economic projects and Angola’s transition of power. There are many fundamental changes occurring in Africa, and in this analysis, we will go the biggest developments that await 2017.
In South America, the stakes differ greatly between countries. Some nations will focus on deterring criminal syndicates and settling peace deals with rebel forces. Others will seek to contain social unrest and hyperinflation. Then, in a turn of events, there are countries who will enjoy political stability. Either way, in this analysis we will go over the challenges for South America in 2017.
Most of the geopolitical events in East Asia revolve around China. The decisions that Beijing makes have a profound impact on the region. As China adopts a new foreign and domestic policy, regional nations must adapt as well. In this analysis, we will go over some of these geopolitical changes and explain what awaits East Asia in 2017.
South Asia is a region of contrast. Some nations will be fixated with security and financial concerns. Yet, others will find themselves in the centre of a geopolitical chessboard, with Russian, Chinese, American and Indian pieces moving all over the place. Meanwhile, local politicians will seek to exploit the growing nationalist sentiment to advance their own political agendas. This and more we will go over in the 2017 analysis for South Asia.
We find ourselves in a world that is more crowded, nervous and anxious than at any moment in history. As technology advances, distances shrink and regional interests collide more frequently than in the past. This is especially true for China. Asia's Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific by Robert D. Kaplan explores our globalised world, and how Beijing’s uneasy interaction with other Asian countries is shifting the balance of power in Asia. So, if you seek to understand the complicated waters of the South China Sea, which is crowded with cargo vessels, oil tankers, warships, and provocative war games, then this book offers a superb summary of the geopolitics in East and Southeast Asia.
In recent decades Somalia has become analogous to a failed state. It is known as a sanctuary for warlords, jihadist and even pirates. For this reason, the country poses a security risk in the Horn of Africa. However, it wasn’t always like this. In fact, in the mid-20th century, the country was a powerful force in the region. So, in this report, we will explore the decline of Somalia, the origins of its long-standing crisis and what issues the country faces today.
With the admission of Morocco into the African Union as of January 30th, 2017, the AU now consists of all fifty-five countries on the continent. Based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the main goals of the African Union are to promote the unity and solidarity of African states; ensure their sovereignty and territorial integrity; rid the continent of colonialism and apartheid and promote international cooperation with the United Nations through a unified voice of common political, social and economic policies. Although the African continent has suffered through an incredibly turbulent and violent past, the African Union is emerging as a promising platform to tackle the many issues that face the rapidly growing continent.
Most people casually dismiss the North Korean government as either crazy or insane. Even though it’s past decisions have caused widespread famine, resulted in an economic meltdown, and the personality cult surrounding Kim is nothing short of totalitarian, there is strategic thought behind the nuclear program. In fact, it may well be the most sensible thing in North Korea.
With about 1.6 billion adherents, Islam is the second largest religion on Earth. Yet, its followers represent less than one percent of the world’s scientists. Only a handful of people from Muslim-majority countries have won Nobel Prizes in science. However, up until the Mongol siege of Baghdad in 1258, Islamic science was the most advanced in the world. In comparison with the past, the modern disparity is staggering. Thus, to understand the present-day lack of scientific accomplishments, we must explore the past. In this first instalment of a new series, we will go over the rise and decline of Islamic attitudes towards science.
There are an estimated 1.6 billion followers of Islam. Yet, Muslim-majority nations produce a disproportionately small share of the world’s scientific output. Annually, more books are translated into Spanish, than into Arabic in the last 1,000 years. The lack of scientific output is stunning. There is no single explanation for the negligence of science in the Islamic world. There is no single ruler who inaugurated it and no single event that fueled it. The truth is that the Islamic Golden Age, witnessed a complex sequence of unforeseen events.
Years of fighting in Syria has left the country devastated. The conflict has claimed the lives of nearly half a million people. Furthermore, about half the Syrian population has been internally displaced and about five million are registered as refugees. Yet, sooner or later, the war will end and the reconstruction of Syria will start. But, even then, the fallout of the war and the geopolitical division of the country will be felt for decades to come.
Over the 20th century, the development of automated machinery has propelled modern industry and manufacturing into new heights of productivity. However, the cost of this technological advancement has been the displacement of millions of blue collar jobs across the world. In contrast, white-collar labour has always been regarded as safe from the kind of automation that contracted the manufacturing workforce. The thought of machines replacing educated and skilled professionals had usually seemed a distant problem of the future - until now. In the past few years, advancement in artificial intelligence has skyrocketed and computers are now learning to solve complex problems better and faster than human beings. As learnings algorithms and computing power continue to become more powerful, many jobs that were once thought to be impossible to automate are slowly but surely shifting towards a silicon workforce.
Foreign intervention in Libya has plunged the country from one civil war into another. As of this writing, local jihadist forces have aligned with either al-Qaeda or ISIS and control substantial portions of territory. Meanwhile, three rival governments, backed by coalitions and militias struggle for control and legitimacy. In addition, the factions are aided by competing foreign powers. The victor in the conflict will get to shape the nation and inherit the country’s 67 billion USD sovereign wealth. Yet, the geopolitical web of allegiances and interests has polarised the society. To make sense of the current circumstances we will go over the origins of the second Libyan civil war.
Six Arab countries, led by the Saudis, suspended diplomatic relations with Qatar and accused the energy-rich state of sponsoring terrorism. Some of the involved nations have already issued travel bans to Qatar, which has created an immediate crisis for the country. Most of the involved governments don’t see eye to eye and have their own reasons to cut relations with Qatar. And, even though the development may come as a surprise, one thing is certain, the crisis has more to do with the long-standing geopolitical tensions, rather than security.
Over the past two decades, the airlines in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have overturned the commercial aviation industry. Currently, there are more than 150 aviation-related projects in the region, with a combined value of nearly 60 billion USD. As such, the monarchies in the Gulf region are home to some of the largest long-haul carriers in the world. However, in wake of tensions across the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt have closed their airspace to Qatar. This disruption to air travel has raised concerns for the future of the airlines across the region. In this report, we’ll go over the aviation implications of the current crisis. But, we will also explain how the geo-economic circumstances have contributed to the success of Qatar Airways, Emirates Airline and Etihad Airways.
A Q&A on recent global events. These questions were submitted on Patreon.
King Salman of Saudi Arabia named his favourite son Mohammed bin Salman as next in line for the throne on June 21st. In addition to promotion, the King removed all titles from the former crown prince Mohammed bin Nayef. The reorganisation is nothing less than groundbreaking. Typically, Saudi Arabia has been ruled by kings in the 70s or 80s. But, in his 30s, bin Salman will become the youngest ruler in the history of the kingdom and thereby preside over the political, economic and social reforms in the country.
With Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets recently attracting unprecedented amounts of attention, many are left wondering what the popularity of this new technology means. Digital currencies have the potential to disrupt financial systems across the globe through new business opportunities, technological applications, and by fully distributing control over money. However, while some consider cryptocurrency a much needed innovation, others see it as nothing more than a bubble ready to burst.
For many centuries the Islamic World was at the forefront of scientific achievement. Yet, in modern times, the level of education has declined to such an extent that on the average, Muslim-majority countries have 9 technicians, engineers and scientists per thousand people. For comparison, the global average stands at 41 per thousand people. To understand this phenomenon we must explore the past. In the previous episodes, we explained how the Inquisition of Ibn Hanbal and the Anarchy at Samarra, ignited the disintegration of the Abbasid Empire. It is during this era that religious and political developments intertwined and set the stage for a new group of theology, which would forever change Islamic civilisation.
After nearly two decades Putin came to power, many are still trying to figure out the man behind the name. All the Kremlin's Men: Inside the Court of Vladimir Putin by Mikhail Zygar addresses this question in an unprecedented and compelling manner. While most books on Russian politics focus extensively on Putin and merely rehash familiar stories, Zygar focuses on the people surrounding the President. As such, his book gradually dissolves the image of Putin and reveals a gripping narrative of the decision-making procedures in the Kremlin.
It’s been several weeks since Indian and Chinese troops confronted one another in a remote pass through the Himalayan peaks. Since then, hundreds of troops from both sides have been locked in a standoff a few dozen meters apart. In the meantime, nationalist rhetoric has been flying fast. The standoff has aggravated already tense relations and is considered the most intense crisis between the Asian powers in the last three decades. However, what is less clear are the geopolitical motives behind the standoff.
As a country by the Gulf of Thailand and in the centre of Southeast Asia, the Kingdom of Thailand finds itself at the intersection of regional trading routes. Yet, despite its geopolitical value, the country has yet to establish a modern system of governance. Since the 1930s, Thailand underwent 19 coup attempts, of which 12 were successful. To put it into perspective, that is one coup every four years. So, to understand the country’s cycle of revolutions, we must explore the past and go over the origins of the Thai military government.
While officials in Washington and Pyongyang exchange threats against one another, the People's Republic of China has remained remarkably silent on the matter. It is a common misconception that Beijing has full control over Pyongyang. Thus, when President Trump turns to President Xi to solve the Korean issue, which shows a lack of options for the Americans, it raises the question of what determines China’s policy on North Korea.
As a significant power in East Asia, Japan has long struggled to find its place in the region. In the previous century alone, the country rapidly modernized itself and altered between various ideas ranging from isolationism, militarism, mercantilism to centralized governance and consumer-based economy. However, Tokyo’s past challenges are not merely submerged in history. Many problems remain unaddressed. In this report, we will go over these issues and explains the geopolitics of Japan.
Communal experiences and environmental elements, such rivers, mountains and resources determine the behaviour of nations and shape their mindsets. These conditions are especially true in the case of Japan’s distinct identity. In this report, we will go over the focal points of Japanese history and explain how the country’s modern geopolitical narrative took shape.
In recent years, the government in Beijing has taken an offensive attitude in regard to the territorial claims in Asia. China has disputes in the south, east and west of the country. The pursuit of these geopolitical objectives has come at the expense of its neighbours. However, we cannot pass everything off as Chinese expansionism since every dispute is unique in its origin. And, what may appear as aggressive posture by China, can be rationally explained by examining the country’s early-modern history that shaped the national mindset.
The last 100,000 years have been good for humankind. All around us, even in the poorest of nations, humans have made remarkable advances in proficiency and ability. The accomplishments have been the subject of many books. Yet, very few sources delve into the origins and anthropology of where we come from and what shaped our identities. Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari seeks to explore these questions and introduces us to the dominant species on Earth, the homo sapiens.
At least 12 members of Myanmar security forces were killed by Rohingya insurgents in late-August 2017, which prompted the Burmese military to retaliate with excessive force. The ensuing violence triggered the exodus of about 400,000 ethnic Rohingyas. Many of the refugees brought with them testimonies of atrocities and extrajudicial killings. The UN declared that the violence seemed like a textbook example of ethnic cleansing. Meanwhile, the Burmese government denies wrongdoing and emphasises the threat of the Rohingya-based insurgency that operates in Rakhine province. Officials in Myanmar also accused Rohingyas of setting their own villages ablaze and claimed that international aid workers were rendering assistance to the insurgents. In this report, we will separate fact from fiction and examine the crisis in Rakhine State.
Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the Kurdish people have been dispersed into four sovereign nations, where they have had uneasy relationships with the central rulers. Throughout the 20th century, the Kurds have been marginalized and persecuted, particularly in Iraq and Turkey. The nations they inhabit cannot allow an independent Kurdistan to exist, for its existence would threaten theirs. Yet, the civil wars in Iraq and Syria as well as the presence of ISIS, has put forth new challenges but also new opportunities for the Kurds. On September 25th, the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq will conduct a referendum on independence. Whatever the results may be, the vote is likely to enrage tensions in the Middle East.
Tensions are high between Catalan and Spanish authorities over the former’s referendum on independence, which is scheduled for October 1st, 2017. As Catalan resident prepare to vote on whether they want to remain part of Spain, officials in Madrid insist that the mandate is illegal and are taking measures to prevent and disrupt the electoral process.
Words such as algebra, algorithm, alchemy, alcohol, coffee, and more, derive from Arabic, and reflect on Islam’s contribution to the West. Yet, in modern times, science and education in Muslim-majority countries are at an all-time low. This is especially true for Arabic nations. Between 1980 and 2000, nine Arab countries, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, granted a total of 370 patents compared to at least 16,320 by South Korea. To explain this anomaly, we must explore the past. In the previous episodes, we went over the Silk Road, the rationalist Mu’tazila, the inquisition of Ibn Hanbal, the decline of the Abbasids and the formation of the Ash’ari, who adhered to predestination. We also went over the conquests of the Seljuk Turks, which, in the 11th century, set the Muslim rulers on a collision course with the Crusaders from Europe.
Saudi Arabia is at a turning point in its history. Last month, the government cracked down on dissidents and detained dozens of civilians. The events took place at the backdrop of other global developments such as the referendums in Iraqi Kurdistan and Catalonia as well as the ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas in Myanmar. Thus, the Saudi crackdown went largely unnoticed in the international media. Outlets that did cover the events presented it as a violation of human rights. Yet, the nature of the arrests is more subtle and indicates that King Salman is preparing to abdicate his throne and install his son bin Salman as the new ruler of Saudi Arabia.
In a matter of hours, the Kurdish government in Erbil lost years of geopolitical gains when Iraqi forces recaptured the city of Kirkuk on October 16th. Since then, ethnic tensions have been high in the city. Thousands of families have fled for fear of sectarian blowback. Meanwhile, Kurdish politicians accuse one another of treason. However, what is less visible is the political intrigue between the Iraqi Kurdish political factions, which attests to the formation of the next round of geopolitical hostilities.
Over the last decade, high profile cyber attacks have steadily increased among national governments such as the United States, China, Russia, Israel and even North Korea. As cyber warfare becomes the battlefield of choice for developed nations, governments are able to launch direct attacks against each other in secrecy and without the risk of causing physical harm. This trend has resulted in new global threats as digital technology becomes increasingly integrated into all aspects of life. In this report, we will examine the effectiveness, allure, and dangers of cyber warfare.
Geopolitics in the Middle East can be treacherous. In the absence of a common enemy, allies have turned against one another and old rivalries have resurfaced. This situation is best examined in the Republic of Iraq. While the disintegration of the country has been apparent for years, now, however, the decline of ISIS has revived old disputes among the Iraqi Kurdish factions. The recent flashpoint in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk is a manifestation of things to come. As the guns fall silent, diplomatic talks have started on the new geopolitical arrangement in the affected area.
In a televised broadcast, on November 15th, the military of Zimbabwe announced that President Robert Mugabe had been put under house arrest. The spokesman said that the army was targeting criminal elements within the ruling party and denied that the operation was a plot to overthrow the government. Yet, despite the assurance, the military takeover is not a popular uprising against tyranny. In fact, the event bears all the signs of a coup.
Roughly a century ago, in the heat of World War I, the Germans devised a plan to eliminate the Russians from the fight. The German high command loaded a secret weapon unto a sealed train headed for enemy-territory. Winston Churchill once described that cargo as a plague bacillus, and, it promised to destroy Russia from within. That weapon was Vladimir Lenin and his unlikely band of ragtag revolutionaries. Their story sits at the heart of Lenin on the Train by Catherine Merridale, which covers the ensuing civil war and how it fundamentally changed Russia.
Up until the 13th century, the Muslim world was at the cutting edge of scientific findings. Today, however, it is at an all-time low. There is no single explanation for this negligence. And, even though, most people believe that the Mongol destruction of Baghdad, marked the end of the Islamic Golden Age, but, a great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself within.
Over the weekend, on the night between December 1st and 2nd, an unidentified aircraft fired five missiles at a military position that was undergoing renovations in the Damascus province in Syria. Two of the missiles were intercepted but the airstrike still caused substantial damage. Although Israel did not take responsibility for the airstrike, no one has any illusions about the identity of the warplanes that conducted the attack. Likewise, no one has misconceptions about the purpose of the Iranian base that was bombed. The sequence of events shows that the Israeli and Iranian rivalry is entering a new phase. The two are in fact waging a war by other means.
President Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel on December 6th and directed the State Department to move the embassy there. The planning, funding and logistics won’t happen overnight, but the United States is the first country to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Currently, emotions are running high, and opinions are clouded by the city’s theological heritage that often exaggerates any form of change as impending doom and destruction. Although the situation will not go apocalyptic, Trump’s decision has upending decades of American policy in one of the most contentious conflicts in the world.
With about 1.6 billion adherents, Islam is the second largest religion on Earth. Yet, its followers represent less than one percent of the world’s scientists. Only a handful of people from Muslim-majority countries have won Nobel Prizes in science. However, up until the Mongol siege of Baghdad in 1258, Islamic science was the most advanced in the world. In comparison with the past, the modern disparity is staggering. Thus, to understand the present-day lack of scientific accomplishments, we must explore the past. In this instalment of a new series, we will go over the rise and decline of Islamic attitudes towards science.
As a bridge connecting Europe and Asia, Turkey sits in between two worlds. While the Middle East is undergoing a dramatic transition, Europe is as calm as it has ever been. Should this peace be disrupted, the changes that would occur in the Balkans and the Black Sea would affect Turkey, and, thus, determine its geopolitical objectives in Europe
Turkey is a transcontinental power, and, while the European side of the country is secure and calm, the situation could not be more different on the Asian front. The collapse of the Sykes-Picot agreement is disintegrating the territorial borders from within and in the subsequent vacuum of power, major nations seek to carve out their own spheres of influence. All these activities, directly and indirectly, affect Turkey and determine the country’s geopolitical objectives in Asia.
For over a week, anti-government demonstrations have emerged across Iran. At this point, protests have been reported in dozens of cities, with at least 20 people confirmed dead in sporadic clashes between protestors and law enforcement units. In the Iranian capital, more than 450 people have been detained. Yet, despite the media hype, the unrest does not bear the signs of a revolution.
Negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia concerning the latter’s Renaissance Dam fell apart in November 2017 when officials from Cairo walked away from the talks. It is presumed that the parties failed to reach an agreement on the impact assessment of the project. The scale of the impasse is unique as it not only deals with the Renaissance Dam but also sets a legal precedent for future upstream projects and thereby affects the geopolitical balance between Egypt and Ethiopia.
As ISIS has scattered from the conventional battlespace in Syria, the focus has shifted to other parts of the country. The army of al-Assad, backed by Iran and Russia, have confined the rebel militias to pockets all over the country. The most significant rebel concentration is near the city of Idlib, where Turkish-backed militias and Islamist groups are held up. The war has continued by these parameters, but it has taken a different form. Nearly all the opposition figures who started the anti-government movement are no longer around and goals for regime change have vanished as well. This new phase in the war has little to do with al-Assad, ideology, international law, or even Jihadist groups. Instead, every belligerent wants a piece of influence in Syria, which effectively means the dismemberment of the state.
In historic relation, Egypt has dominated the Nile River. In fact, it’s history, culture and national identity derives from the existence of the river. However, as a downstream nation, Egypt’s share of water is being challenged by upstream Ethiopia, which seeks to exploit its geographic virtue by the construction of hydroelectric power plants. Yet, the dispute over the Nile is not a recent occurrence. In fact, the historic struggle over water security in the Nile has shaped a distinct rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt.
The nations surrounding the North Sea have some of the best standards of living and they consistently score the highest in education, health care, equality, GDP per capita, etc. These are all commendable performances, but Northwestern Europe has been doing well for centuries and the region has contributed more to Western culture than is generally acknowledged. This premise sits at the heart of The Edge of the World: A Cultural History of the North Sea and the Transformation of Europe by Michael Pye, which reveals how the region transformed from an impoverished outpost to the focal point of civilization.
Amid all the media outlets about fake news, it is easy to get carried away with sensationalist stories that are designed to inflame passions. However, fake news is not a recent phenomenon. In fact, it is as old as civilization and it has its roots in the mainstream distribution of the printing press.
As technologies progressed in the 20th century, new devices and platforms of communication entered the mainstream. The media transformed from partisan propaganda to a business model to close-enough impartial reporting. This transition, however, also presented governments with new instruments to shape yellow journalism to deliberately mislead audiences.
Saudi Arabia announced plans to construct a new megacity in the northwestern corner of the country by the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba. The ambitious project will cost about 500 billion USD and seeks to link to neighbouring Egypt and Jordan. Besides its economic feasibility, the proximity of the project could lead to Saudi Arabia’s recognition of Israel. Suffice to say, a project of this magnitude is not without its geo-economic challenges.
Fake news, propaganda and questions about the credibility of information continue to cloud political and cultural developments that are shaping our world. Although fake news has always existed in one form or another, the current hype serves as a red herring that hides the deep political dysfunction in societies in the post-truth environment.
Located between West and East, the Republic of Turkey links Europe to the Middle East and the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. The country also controls two maritime chokepoints and holds significant economic, military and cultural influence throughout the region. However, the union between the country’s capital-rich cosmopolitan western provinces and the underprivileged conservative eastern regions has shaped a duality in the geopolitical mindset of Turkey.
In the 1950s, the KGB destroyed a state of the art invention for fear of the chaos it could have on the Soviet Union. The young engineer who had designed it, Vladimir Fridkin, had not created a deadly virus or a nuclear bomb. What the KGB feared was a photocopier that allowed one to make copies of articles from foreign journals and enabled the free flow of information. This anecdote sounds insane today. Yet, for Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, the authors of The Red Web: The Struggle Between Russia's Digital Dictators and the New Online Revolutionaries, the fate of Fridkin’s photocopier is an indication of the mentality that drives the Kremlin’s crackdown on the internet.
In preparation for the Russian presidential election this month, Putin has promised to address the country’s economic grievances in his next term. However, how he plans to implement reforms is yet to be determined as two rival groups are working on conflicting roadmaps.
While most news outlets are focused on the Kremlin’s involvement in the presidential election of the United States, the Russian public is preparing to choose its own head of state. The country’s largest poll predicts that Putin will win with about 70 percent of the vote, but policymakers are already thinking beyond election day. As we explained in the previous report, Putin has promised to implement economic reforms in his next term. However, what is less explored are the upcoming security changes that will shape the balance of power within Russia’s security apparatus.
A great deal of geopolitics is fixated on land and sea in the context of security. It reveals how geography, demography, economy, natural resources and technology determines the political interaction between individual nations. Today, the biggest militaries in the world are in an arms race towards a new type of weapon that can pass through most defenses and thereby can reshape the present interplay between great powers.
For over half a century, starting with the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963, a series of legally binding arms control regimes prevented further proliferation of nuclear weapons and restricted the existing stockpiles. However, under the weight of geopolitical events, nearly all agreements have come to a stop, and may completely collapse in the near future.
From the ancient Greco-Persian hostilities in the Mediterranean to the submarine tactics of the Cold War, Sea Power: The History and Geopolitics of the World's Oceans by retired four-star US Navy Admiral James Stavridis tells the story of the seas in past and present civilizations. It is a thoroughly fascinating look at the intersection of geopolitics and the world's largest bodies of water.
In the first known fatal accident involving an autonomous vehicle, a car from Uber's self-driving test program struck and killed a pedestrian on March 19. The accident highlights concerns over safety regulations and it could alter the behaviour of designers, lawmakers and public opinion, which could contribute to the delay in the development of automated technology. However, the mainstream adoption of autonomous vehicles is inevitable, and it will profoundly change the workplace, transportation and society as a whole.
At a time when much of the West is distracted by faltering economic integration, renewed protectionism, and short-term policies, China is connecting with the outside world through a series of long-term economic investments. The project, known as the Belt and Road initiative, spans 68 countries through several land corridors and maritime routes. It covers about 65 percent of the world's population, which equals 40 percent of the global GDP. It is nothing less than the most ambitious geo-economic project in recent history, and it seeks to revive the ancient Silk Road.
The deep state sounds like the stuff of conspiracies. It implies that there is a secret powerful group that has its own agenda and undermines the policies of elected leaders and politicians. Most people take unconditional standpoints, claiming that it’s either fiction or fact. The truth is more complicated. The deep state exists, but it’s not as thrilling or malevolent as the concept indicates.
War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft by Robert Blackwill and Jennifer Harris explores the role of financial assets in modern geopolitics. The title of the book is also a play on the famous adage by Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz who once stated that war is the continuation of politics by other means. With this in mind, the book reveals geo-economics for what it is, an extension of geopolitics that seeks to maximize capacities through asymmetrical economic means.
A group of influential Thai officials is promoting the construction of a long-envisioned megaproject, known as the Thai Canal. If built, it would transform the regional maritime dynamics and give Thailand a substantial stake in global trade. Yet, as ambitious as the project it, there are equally credible drawbacks that could reshape the geo-economic fortunes of Southeast Asia.
As a nation in the centre of the European continent, Germany and its immediate surrounding hold the densest concentration of wealth in the world. Its extensive navigable waterways and arable land give the country an edge in trade and commercial activities. Yet, for all its advantages, the country is utterly exposed to neighbouring powers. For the past two centuries, these conditions have determined the geopolitics of Germany.
As a robust power, Germany has played a profound role in history. Yet, the modern state of Germany only came into existence less than two centuries ago when a chain of events disrupted the stalemate in Europe. This revolutionary era was marked with innovation, conflict, political intrigue, social overhaul, and much more. All of which contributed to the unification of Germany.
President Trump pulled the plug on the nuclear deal with Iran on May 8th and claimed that Tehran had failed to comply with the obligations. Yet, since no tangible evidence was presented, the unilateral decision places Washington in violation of its obligations under the pact. But, regardless of who is right, the turn of events raises a lot of questions, and it remains to be seen what comes next.
Thousands of Palestinians attempted to cross the Israel-Gaza Strip border fence only to be met with live gunfire from the Israeli side. The deadly events left dozens of dead, but it also highlights just how much, and simultaneously how little, has changed over the years.
Good fences make good neighbours. This is not just a saying but an inescapable truth of the human condition. When the Berlin Wall was brought down, the idea of enforced separation was dismissed as something from the past. In practice, however, it is the exact opposite. Divided: Why We're Living in an Age of Walls by Tim Marshall explores how societies have responded to the changes brought by globalization and how each nation tries to maintain a sense of national identity.
The 20th century was one of the most violent and destructive periods in history. Millions upon millions had perished. At the centre of the hostility was Germany. Yet, over the course of the two world wars and the cold war, the government in Berlin underwent fundamental changes that continue to shape the behaviour and the geopolitical mindset of German policymakers.
Recent developments in East Asia have revived hopes that the two Korean states can set aside their differences and reconcile. In the past, such sentiment routinely deteriorated into political schemes, which is why all the previous diplomatic initiatives failed. Yet, regardless of the current the sincerity, how would the reunification of the Korean Peninsula work?
The demilitarized zone that runs across the Korean Peninsula seems like the outcome of the armed conflict that devastated the area in the 1950s. However, an in-depth examination of Korea’s modern history reveals how the peninsula was caught in a tug of war between regional and Western powers. Thereby, planting the seeds that would ultimately result in the division of the Korean nation into north and south.
Throughout its history, Poland has struggled against foreign incursions. As such, the extent of its power shifted enormously. In the 17th century, the country prevailed as a major power in Eastern Europe. Yet, by the end of the 18th century, it had completely disappeared from the map. Poland survived only in memory and language before it emerged again a century later. This experience of national disasters has shaped the Polish mindset with a sense of suspicion and anxiety. As such, policymakers in Warsaw are desperately searching for a global power that can guarantee the sovereignty of Poland. Subsequently, the security dilemma is also laying the groundwork for the country to emerge as a regional power.
The Prime Minister of Greece recently announced that he had reached a deal with his counterpart in Skopje, where the Republic of Macedonia would be renamed to the Republic of North Macedonia. In addition, the citizens of the country will be called, as before, Macedonians, while explicitly noting that they are not related to the ancient Macedonians. All these changes will be put to a referendum for Macedonian citizens in the autumn of 2018. For most outsiders, this name dispute seems trivial, for the locals, however, it is a matter of national identity.
In most Western outlets, Central Asia is often depicted as a distant world that is isolated from global affairs and is plagued by economic stagnation and political repression. Dictators Without Borders: Power and Money in Central Asia by Alexander Cooley and John Heathershaw dismantles that perception and reveals a region that is inherently connected with the world through corruption.
At the behest of the government in Stockholm, a 20-page brochure was sent to all households in Sweden in May 2018. The content of the pamphlet provides instructions to local citizens and what they can do in case of an armed conflict. To understand what Swedish policymakers are preparing for, we need to analyze the geopolitics of Sweden.
The mainland of Southeast Asia, historically known as Indochina, is home to a wide range of ethnicities that extend across a vast territory. Spread interchangeably are forests, mountains, valleys, rivers, deltas and coastlines. With such a divergent environment, the nations of Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam have distinctly different identities, beliefs and geopolitical needs.
After being elected into another term in June 2018, President Erdogan of Turkey is getting ready to construct an ambitious new waterway on the European side of Istanbul. The canal will be the third megaproject in the city after a new continent-crossing bridge was completed in 2016 and the world’s largest airport will be finished by the end of the year. Yet, the government’s vision for a new canal also carries extensive geo-economic consequences for the Black Sea domain.
President Trump handed Prime Minister Netanyahu a significant win when he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and relocated the US Embassy there. Now, Israeli lobbying groups in Washington are pushing Republican lawmakers for the recognition of Israel’s claim over the Golan Heights. Such an act would mark the most significant validation of forcefully acquired land since 1945, and it would have a dramatic impact on the interpretation of international law.
What does the Athenian expedition to Sicily, Alexander the Great at the Indus, Julius Caesar's crossing the Rubicon, Hitler at the border of Russia and Lyndon Johnson in Vietnam have in common? On Grand Strategy by John Lewis Gaddis explains how all these leaders were blinded by their past tactical achievements and deceived themselves that they had the capabilities to meet their expectations, and so ended up humiliated, defeated or dead.
Maritime Southeast Asia is a cluster of small and large islands that sit between the Indian and Pacific oceans. Historically part of the East Indies and contemporary known as the Malay Archipelago, the area has some of the world’s highest levels of biodiversity for marine ecosystems. Here, coral, fish and molluscs thrive. Yet, perhaps the prevailing characteristic is the maritime-based cultures that are represented by the nations of the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Singapore. All of this makes for a unique archipelagic neighbourhood with its own distinct geopolitical needs.
Korea’s long and troubled history is largely defined by its geographic position between larger powers. The struggle to find a balance between Japan and China repeatedly facilitated a tug of war that enabled internal division and invited foreign intervention in the Korean Peninsula.
Southeast Asia is home to a wide range of ethnolinguistic groups that extend across a vast territory. Spread interchangeably are forests, mountains, valleys, rivers, deltas, coastlines, islands and archipelagos. With such a divergent environment, the nations of Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore and the Philippines, have distinctly different identities, beliefs and geopolitical needs.
With the lira plunging to new depths before partly rectifying itself, Turkey has seen better days. Yet, what’s happening to the lira is not restricted to Turkey. Global credit levels, especially US dollar-denominated debts, are at an all-time high. Access to cheap credit has facilitated a new crisis in many emerging markets. Now, those reckless monetary policies are starting to show their cracks.
Some believe that poverty and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa is the result of the centuries of exploitation by foreign powers. Others blame it on poor African leadership and argue that the outside world has provided substantial aid in recent decades. The Looting Machine: Warlords, Tycoons, Smugglers and the Systematic Theft of Africa’s Wealth by Tom Burgis dismisses these beliefs and reveals a web of corporate structures that holds both African leaders as well as powerful international institutions complicit in the modern plunder of Africa.
Known for its output of hydrocarbon resources and for its close proximity to some of the world’s busiest maritime traffic lanes, as well as the cradle of the Islamic faith, Saudi Arabia has a monumental impact on the political events in the Middle East. Yet, the kingdom also faces several inherent domestic and foreign complications that shape its geopolitical behaviour.
Having one foot in Europe and one foot in the Middle-East, Turkey’s geographical and political position in the world means it has a particularly important role to play in the stability of world politics. The country’s steady lean towards the Islamic faith is a story that started roughly a century ago when Turkey was revolutionised under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.
By virtue of physical location, Russia inherits a resolute role in global geopolitics. This explains why the United States and Russia cannot stop fighting because they have so many disputes in the latter’s periphery. Last War of the World-Island - Geopolitics of Contemporary Russia by Alexander Dugin expands on this notion and frames the American-Russian rivalry as a struggle between the sea and land power for global dominance.
Throughout its history, merchants and missionaries from India introduced new beliefs and ideas in Southeast Asia, leaving a significant mark in the region. Today, India’s influence remains visible in the ancient relics and Hindu temples as well as the diaspora communities that are spread throughout the area. As part of his Act East Policy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks to revive that tradition in response to Beijing’s geopolitical surge.
History is full of recordings of conflicts, while peace is considered poor reading. The European Union, since its inception, has contributed to a stalemate in Europe, which has largely kept the peace in the continent. In fact, the bloc was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012 for contributing to the “advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe.” But how did a continent that fought two world wars come to a truce known as the Long Peace?
With the Belt and Road initiative in full swing, China is working to develop and integrate its interior into the global economy. Thereby, bypassing maritime chokepoints and reducing its economic disparity at the same time. Yet, many have come to question China’s intentions, and believe that Beijing uses debt, as part of its checkbook diplomacy, to advance its regional interests.
As of September 2018, the national debt of the United States surpassed 21,4 trillion USD, while the budget deficit is at its highest number since 2012. And, even though there are a lot of unwarranted claims and misconceptions pinned to this topic, many are concerned that the national debt is reaching unsustainable levels. To get to the bottom of this, we must subtract fact from fiction and go over the fundamentals of America’s sovereign debt.
When the government can grant or restrict a reporter’s access to places and people, is even possible to write real stories? What if the authorities provide press releases with photos, phone numbers and descriptions, are such prepackaged stories even objective? What about the news agencies themselves, are they public servants or are they in the business of news since their revenues depend on advertisers? Questions like these sit at the heart of People Like Us: Misrepresenting the Middle East by Joris Luyendijk, as it delivers a compelling narrative of the gap between image and reality in the Middle East.
America's national debt is the largest binding obligation of the federal government. At an outstanding sum of 21,4 trillion USD, it’s also the largest sovereign debt in the world and greater than what the country produces in a whole year. No single event facilitated this amount, and even though debt has been a part of American history since its foundation, nearly the entire net sum was only accumulated in the last three decades.
What began as a reaction to the jihadist activity in Mali in 2012 has steadily expanded across the belt of the Sahel region. In this semi-arid climate, just south of the Sahara, some 4,000 French troops are combatting jihadist forces in five African countries. Not since the colonial era has France shown this level of economic and military commitment in Africa. But, what exactly is this conflict about and why do the French feel the need to get involved.
The US budget deficit for the fiscal year 2018 hit 779 billion USD, which is 17 percent more than the year before. Much of the increase is pegged to Trump’s recent legislations. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office expects the federal deficit to eclipse 1 trillion USD in 2020, which would generate about 9,5 trillion USD in debt over the coming decade. Yet, as substantial as this sounds, the United States is neither at risk of default nor can it continue to spend with impunity.
For nearly three centuries, numerous tribes and empires sought to subjugate the Arabian Peninsula. During that relentless conflict for power, the House of Saud was defeated, expelled from their homeland, and essentially hinged on the brink of annihilation. Yet, fuelled by religious fervour, the Saudis eventually bested their rivals and established the modern Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
For over a millennium, the domain between East and West, linking the Pacific with Europe through land and sea, served as the world’s central nervous system. In The Silk Roads: A New History of the World, Peter Frankopan recalibrates our understanding of history and describes how the Silk Road network facilitated the movement of people, goods, ideas, conflict, disease, etc, and essentially drafted Western civilization as we know it.
Last weekend, paramilitary forces of the Russian FSB intercepted two small Ukrainian naval vessels and a tugboat attempting to pass through the Strait of Kerch. The Ukrainian vessels were navigating from the Black Sea port city of Odessa to Mariupol, on the coast of the Sea of Azov when the incident occurred. Now, with at least three injured Ukrainian sailors, both parties are pointing the finger at each other. Yet, whoever is right, the naval standoff illustrates the importance of the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov.
LONDON - Artificial Intelligence, often called simply AI, is one of today’s most important technological trends. It is a rapidly-evolving domain with the potential to disrupt virtually all economic sectors. But while the attention is usually focused on its impact on business, AI can also have a major impact on society and politics, both at the domestic and at the international level.
German chancellor Angela Merkel announced in late October that she will not stand for re-election after her Christian Democratic Union party, or CDU for short, was polled with an all-time low approval rating. Merkel still plans to remain as the head of state until the end of her term in 2021, but her political exit raises a lot of question for Europe’s largest economy.
In recent weeks, the French government has come under fire over increases in living costs. Hundreds of thousands of protesters calling themselves the yellow vests have taken to the streets of the capital, sometimes resulting in violence and destruction. And, even though the government has agreed to raise wages and reduce various taxes, the unrest has largely persisted with implications for the presidency of Macron.
At the start of the 18th century, India’s share of the global economy accounted for about 23 percent. Two centuries later, when the British left India, the subcontinent’s share dropped to around 3 percent. It was a dramatic transition, and what exactly transpired within that colonial era sits at the heart of Inglorious Empire: What the British Did to India by Shashi Tharoor.
As the wheel of time turns and nations become increasingly interconnected by land, air, sea and cyberspace, disputes ripple across regions. This is especially true in Europe, where new elections, treaties and events will reshape the continent. Here’s what we need to keep an eye out for in 2019.
Having pledged 62 billion USD in dozens of energy and infrastructure projects, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is one of the largest commercial initiatives in South Asia. The corridor stretches along the length of Pakistan and the combined value of all the projects equals all the foreign direct investment in the country since 1970. The megaproject also marks as China’s biggest overseas investment. Yet, a plan of this magnitude is not without its geo-economic challenges.
Africa is home to many cultures, languages, religions and raw materials. Yet, despite the diversity, the local nations share the same difficulties, such as rapid population growth, endemic poverty, corruption, as well as the activity of transnational militants. These and more will determine Africa’s geopolitical affairs in 2019.
As globalization binds nations closer together, borders and barriers are becoming increasingly obsolete. Nowhere is this trend more visible than in the Middle East, where violence and destruction will spill-over throughout the neighbourhood in 2019.
These questions were submitted on Patreon.
More people live in the western rim of the Pacific Ocean than anywhere else, but the region’s economy is off balance. Production is about to eclipse demand, and the trade war between Beijing and Washington will cast a shadow over Asia Pacific in 2019.
Review of Imperial Twilight
Home to the world’s singular superpower, the two continents that make up the Western Hemisphere are contrasts of each other. While North America will be preoccupied with internal matters, the affairs in the south will be shaped by the crisis in Venezuela. Here’s what we need to be watchful for in 2019
For over a thousand years, Cairo has served as the heart of Egypt. Yet, some 40 kilometres to the east, the government is constructing a new capital.
For many nations across Sub-Saharan Africa, the legacy of European colonialism remains a fact of existence. In Cameroon, the nation finds itself torn between the francophone government and anglophone separatists. Although frustrations emerged briskly a few years ago, the origins of the standoff traces back to the colonial era and the infamous scramble for Africa.
Q&A overview ✔ 00:16 ► Kuwait's recent actions in the political stage ✔ 01:39 ► long-term implications of renewable energy ✔ 03:10 ► Russian military deployment in Venezuela ✔ 04:11 ► Feasibility of the Marshall Plan with Africa ✔ 06:09 ► China vs United States in global influence ✔ 07:44 ► EU financial aid in underdeveloped countries ✔ 10:04 ► Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Morocco ✔ 12:03 ► Smaller Latin American countries and Venezuela ✔ 14:19 ► Synopsis of the geopolitics of Afghanistan Crypto endorsement
Predictions of a grim future have been a constant occurrence throughout human history, but they haven’t come to pass. Quite the opposite, our lives have improved dramatically in terms of life expectancy, nutrition, wealth, literacy and other measures. The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves by Matt Ridley argues that this positive trend will continue, focusing on how humanity as a species succeeded and why we should embrace an optimist view of the world going into the future.
The last time Pakistani and Indian warplanes bombed each other’s territory was in 1971. More than 10,000 troops perished, and Pakistan was torn apart, resulting in the new state of Bangladesh. Yet, at the time, neither Islamabad nor New Delhi had developed the nuclear arsenals that they wield today. So, when Indian jets breached Pakistan’s airspace on February 26th, it marked the deadliest point of friction in South Asia in decades. But, how did the two countries come so close to the edge of madness and what exactly happened?
Set in the fictional world of George R.R. Martin’s creation, the HBO hit series Game of Thrones mostly takes place on the continent of Westeros where the rights of kings, queens and nobles are undisputed. Story-wise, it borrows heavily from English history. The fictional Seven Kingdoms are largely based on the realms of the Anglo-Saxon Heptarchy in the 5th century, and the conflict between the Lannisters and the Starks is analogous to the War of the Roses. In the show, there are many bloody, multipolar conflicts that involve treachery, greed, corruption, betrayal, allegiances, debts, as well as nihilistic attitudes to religions. Game of Thrones also deals with modern topics such as gender politics, climate change, multiculturalism, immigration, egalitarian totalitarianism, and so forth, but most of these issues are veiled and romanticized in the medieval context. The only fixed truth in this Machiavellian universe is the geography of Westeros, which is what we will be analysing in this
Q&A overview ✔ 00:20 ► Impact of no-deal Brexit ✔ 03:02 ► China-India economic cooperation ✔ 05:05 ► Countering populism and nationalism ✔ 08:05 ► Feasibility of Mexico's war on drugs ✔ 11:08 ► Rwanda's economic outlook for the future ✔ 13:44 ► Prospects of integration of Syrian refugees ✔ 16:50 ► UK-EU relations in the aftermath of Brexit ✔ 18:59 ► China's involvement in Africa ✔ 20:44 ► US dollar as the global reserve currency Crypto endorsement
In 2016, Americans elected a president who rejected democratic rules and norms, denied the legitimacy of his political opponents, condoned violence, and curtailed civil liberties and the freedom of the press. With that, Trump fulfils all the characterizations of authoritarian leadership, at least according to How Democracies Die by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt.
Starting in 431 BC, the ancient Greek world turned on itself as Sparta and Athens locked horns. The result of this rivalry, as is captured vividly and analysed thoroughly by historian Thucydides, was a dynamic conflict that pitted a land power against a naval power. The hostilities lasted on and off for decades, but the events fundamentally shaped the study of geopolitics. It was a war like no other. The catalyst of this conflict and steady manner in which it grew into all-out hostilities has inspired strategic concepts and thinkers throughout the ages. So, to draw parallels with the present, we must analyse Thucydides Trap’ and go over the origins of the Peloponnesian War.
In one of the most neglected places on the globe, Uzbekistan has the distinction of being the most overlooked state. Most people know little about the country, except that it’s isolated, rife with corruption and fighting some obscure insurgency. Other bits of insight people have is that the country employs draconian laws, whilst dealing with ethnic tensions and disputes over resources. All these assumptions are true, but in geopolitics, Uzbekistan is not your typical dictatorship.
In the second half of the 17th century was born a man who would launch Imperial China’s final and greatest golden age. In his reign, the longest in Chinese history, he would suppress rebellions, conquer islands and steppes, oppose and defeat a European power, flourish the economy and reinforce diplomatic relations with many countries. That person was Emperor Kangxi of the Great Qing, and his achievements continue to set the influence contemporary Chinese politics.
Q&A overview ✔ 00:18 ► Geopolitical goals of Morocco ✔ 01:55 ► Importance of the Indian elections ✔ 03:51 ► Impact of climate change on Africa ✔ 06:13 ► Foreign policy in landlocked states ✔ 07:41 ► Future of Russia after Putin ✔ 10:11 ► Consequences of the elections in Ukraine ✔ 12:39 ► Influential geopolitical positions in Indochina ✔ 14:34 ► Petroleum discovery in Pakistan ✔ 16:46 ► Post-Bashir power gap in Sudan ✔ 18:40 ► China-Taiwan reunification Crypto endorsement
We live in a world where the distribution of power is held together by artificial constructs. That international order is bound to collapse as the Americans abandon the Bretton Woods system, carrying all sorts of consequences for the rest of the globe. This is the premise of The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder by Peter Zeihan.
Having established an empire in the Muslim world that was second only to the Ottomans, Ahmad Shah was a towering figure. Not surprisingly, his death left the British, Afghans, Sikhs and Russians scrambling to fill the power vacuum. Patented as the Great Game, this was not a new world but an extension of what began in the old one.
Nearly everything the #Americans and #Soviets designed had an art of dying but was an excuse for living for this was the geopolitics of the #ColdWar.
Vietnam occupies one of the most demanding physical environments imaginable from a policy-making standpoint. A history of infighting, foreign occupation and exploitation reveal that there is a fixed pattern in its geopolitics.
Q&A overview ✔ 00:47 ► Possibility of war between the USA and Iran ✔ 02:55 ► Prospects of populist forces in Europe ✔ 04:48 ► Conflict and the role of the media ✔ 06:41 ► South Africa's return to geopolitical dominance ✔ 09:04 ► New Ukrainian president's position on Russia ✔ 11:31 ► Likelihood of Canadian Albertan secessionism ✔ 14:19 ► US objectives in the Afghan and Iraqi wars ✔ 18:07 ► IMF and the World Bank in US foreign policy ✔ 20:59 ► Israel's geopolitical endgame in the Middle East
he sea holds a special place in the human psyche. It has influenced languages, cultures, economic systems, as well as the profiles of many histories. The sea is, therefore, an integral part of humanity. Some nations, however, planned their entire futures on the prospects of the waves. Seapower States: Maritime Culture, Continental Empires and the Conflict That Made the Modern World by Andrew Lambert tells the captivating story of such seafaring nations.
A look into the world of Françafrique and the powerful, inseparable synergy France has with its former empire in the African continent.
How President Macron plans to capture Africa's demographic wave by using the French language, with the ultimate goal to cement French hegemony worldwide.
Recent events have stoked fears that a war between #Iran and the #UnitedStates is imminent. What we want to know is how such a conflict would play out.
The Horn of Africa is at play and landlocked Ethiopia is getting a blue-water navy. Here's everything you need to know.
With Europe back in the headlines, George Friedman’s Flashpoints underscores the dormant forces in the European continent.
The Aral Sea is shrinking rapidly. What remains in place is another Chernobyl with a geopolitical fallout that is yet to come.
While Americans are debating the authenticity of climate change, the Russians are planning to capitalize on it.
Britain's quest to install a puppet regime in Kabul during the Anglo-Afghan War resulted in one of its greatest military disasters.
Without knowledge of the influences that have shaped Eastern Europe, one cannot understand the Ukrainian crisis.
Djibouti hosts more foreign military bases than any other country in the globe. How did this happen?
Low-cost manufacturing has run its course. Now Beijing wants to transition into a modernized economy like Germany and Japan.
Up to two million people have taken to the streets of Hong Kong to protest a controversial bill that would strengthen China’s hand.
In Greenland, climate change is making the mineral wealth more readily accessible, which has caught the eye of global powers
What instils poverty in some nations and persistent wellbeing in others? Is it climate, culture or is it due to politics?
In #BrettonWoods, 44 countries negotiated a new set of rules, which allowed #Washington to claim the mantle of leadership in the #NewWorldOrder.
The #Congo's natural resources have inspired a most unnatural history of greed and violence, which cost the lives of some 10 million.
When #SherAli ascended as the monarch in 1863, he took on the exceptional task of crafting an #Afghanistan that was impervious to outside powers.
President #Trump's #Impeachment is a story that will be with us for weeks to come but what does it mean foreign policy-wise?
Beijing has industrialized faster than any nation in history. Now, it is also ageing faster than any nation.
As the #Trump administration withdraws its troops from northern #Syria, the region is becoming an open buffet for outside powers.
War is the continuation of politics by other means, and nowhere is this more evident than in #Turkey’s #endgame in #Syria.
Reckless monetary policy runs deep in #Greek history. In fact, Greece was born in debt and declared three bankruptcies after gaining #independence.
As the #Arctic comes under the #geopolitical spotlight, distant #China feels obliged to sail north and carve out its own foothold.
Blessed with an abundance of natural wealth, yet the second most impoverished nation in Europe; this is the geopolitics of Romania.
About 12 percent of global shipping is registered in Liberia. How did a small African nation become a shipping juggernaut?
The 19th century would be the theatre of events that would force the Land of the Rising Sun to either modernize or perish.
America’s support for Israel is seldom ever questioned but how is it that the world’s most powerful nation puts the interests of #Israel before its own?
A reminder of how the #TankerWar of the #1980s sets a precedent for the current situation in the #PersianGulf.
Since becoming a near-global celebration, #Christmas has developed into a blueprint for #American soft power.
A lot is riding on #SouthChinaSea dispute, including rights overs docking, patrol, trade, natural gas - all contributing to the design for #Hegemony.
Shielded by deserts at each side, powered by the mighty Nile, and in command of the Suez crossing, this is the Geopolitics of #Egypt.
Soleimani was a consequential person and his death exacerbates the standoff between Iran and the United States. The question now is when, where, and at what scale will the Iranians retaliate?
Some years are overshadowed by finances, some by politics, and some by conflict. In Asia, all three will linger throughout 2020. China’s economic slowdown will continue to delineate the regional economic outlook. Additionally, due to uncertainties over global trade agreements, many governments are left with no tools to address their local issues. This has given rise to economic inequality and financial austerity measures, which have resulted in social unrest. So, let’s talk about the risks, trends and overall geopolitics of Asia-Pacific in 2020.
Things are shaking up in Europe in 2020. Brexit is happening, new pipelines are coming online, and a strategic arms build-up is destroying the control pacts.
Argentina bankruptcy, Venezuela collapse, social unrest, fiscal instability, the decline of US institutions, and more in this 2020 forecast for North and South America.
Economic reforms, elections, transitional governments, social unrest, shifting militants, and much more in this forecast for Africa in 2020.
The danger from the Wuhan coronavirus comes from public panic and government responses, not the disease itself.
Iranian nuclear crisis, Turkey flexing muscles, Libyan conflict, fragmented Arab world, and more, in the 2020 forecast for the Middle East.
Trump says that all options are on the table regarding Venezuela. What if he follows through? How would an American assault play out?
Scientists from the Netherlands and Germany have proposed to construct two massive dams to protect some 25 million people from rising sea levels. The megaproject stretches between the United Kingdom, France, Norway, and would completely enclose the North Sea. So, is this plan viable or is it as overwhelming and unrealistic as it seems?
America and Afghanistan have struck a deal. Let's have a look at the social evolution of the Taliban.
The development of Christianity as the predominant faith in South Korea is a story of war, pride, and hope.
The Pentagon believes that the Climate Crisis will exceed the White House’s capacity to cope, which might trigger the downfall of the US Military.
Russia has regained much of its ability to project power abroad, but twelve nations in East Europe are designing a deterrence known as the Three Seas.
Sudan has nearly as much as arable land as the entire Arab World put together, which is why everyone is rushing to get as much property as possible since is best suited to emerge as the next Bread basket.
What would happen to the Baltic states if tensions escalated, and Russia NATO relations came to blows?
Turkey and Russia spent most of their histories in a bitter rivalry, fighting no less than twelve wars. Each conflict was driven by the prizes in and around the Black Sea.
Let’s visualize the Human Footprint by processing data collecting all over the world in a 3D layer.
Lawmakers in Belarus are exploring for ways to escape the clutch of Russia, but it's not that easy.
Jordan's focus on strong international ties allows the state to navigate the geopolitical waters of the Middle East.
In the 20th century, Polish lawmakers sought to unify Eastern Europe into a massive land power to ensure their independence.
How realistic is a breakup of the UK today, and what would its ramifications look like?
An introduction to geopolitics. What it is, and how it can be applied in statecraft.
Portuguese lawmakers have filed a legal claim that would change the maritime boundaries of Portugal.
An Iranian nuclear breakout would spur a proliferation cascade throughout the Middle East, starting with the Arab nations.
The #Kremlin seeks to establish a more resilient base of governance – a system where #power is redistributed from the presidency to parliament.
A look at the human dimension of geopolitics; how #geography is made to fit the needs of society.
By the mid-1970s, #Lebanon's power vacuum reached its tipping point. Disenfranchised #minorities took up arms and plunged the country into total conflict.
Amidst European #colonization, a group of #Egyptians banded together and formed the Muslim Brotherhood out of resistance. This story tells their origins.
The #oceans are in the worst condition they have ever been, but the #BlueEconomy seeks to link economic growth with sustainable ecosystems.
In the 1990s, Pakistan took upon itself to revive its ancient links with Central Asia, and in the process reconfigure itself as a superstate.
The recent mapping of New Zealand's continental crust could redefine maritime boundaries in the Pacific.
China and Iran have drafted a deal that will see some 400 billion USD of Chinese investments pour into Iran in the first phase of the 25-year deal.
A seemingly localized Kosovar dispute covers the conflicting interests of the EU, the US, and Serbia, while setting a dangerous practice for the wider periphery.
Denmark, Russia, and Canada are rushing to claim the Lomonosov Ridge. The winner will get to change the global map forever.
Mediterranean nations like Turkey, Greece, and Egypt are engaging in a maritime dance of political posturing, and further escalation is likely.
China occupies a piece of Nepal, while India captures a Chinese outpost, what’s going on in the Himalayas?
Greece is pushing to expand its territorial sea from 11 kilometres to 22. It's a move that is not taken lightly. Turkey has vowed to strike back.
China has more than a dozen unresolved border, land, and maritime disputes. Let’s go over them one by one, and see what all the fuss is about.
China's economic clout in Central and Eastern Europe is growing, but not everything is as it seems.
Private armies are big business, and global in scope. But how did this arrangement come about?
In the late 1990s, as Russia was going through monetary depression and social unrest, Belarus set in motion the most ambitious coup in world history.
The current war in Karabakh is the result of 27-years of diplomatic failure. So, let’s go over the events that led to this point, and then see how the hostilities are progressing.
Israel was born in the roughest corner of the Middle East. Its whole existence is defined by the perpetual threat of extinction.
Israel is a major player in the global arms market, but how did a small nation of 8 million become a high-tech military superpower?
Houthi rebels in Yemen took credit for the Saudi Oil Attacks, but an in-depth look reveals the making of an alarming new pattern.
In Ethiopia, the political calamity between the federal government in Addis Ababa and the regional government in Tigray has turned violent.
Canada's population is spread unevenly from the Atlantic to the Pacific, with every region having its own interests. Managing these population clusters sits at the heart of Canadian geopolitics.
Two initiatives, the Tracks for Regional Peace and Neom city, seek to physically connect Israel to the Arab world, and in the process normalize those ties.
As the India-China rivalry grows, India is now militarizing the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago by the entry point of the Malacca Strait.
After gaining independence, pan-Malay lawmakers espoused to combine the resources of the nations in the Malay Archipelago into a single country.
Russia and China may no longer share a common philosophy, but the invisible hand of #geopolitics is driving the two together nonetheless.
London is considering an Anglophone Federation that includes Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The potential is enormous, but can it work?
Crimea's water supplies are plummeting. Major cities are rationing supplies, with strict restrictions expected down the line. How did 2020 become the driest year in Crimean history?
Turkey and Israel are working on ways to restore their diplomatic ties. At the heart of the talks is a plan that would redistribute the sea in between.
Three new trans-Mediterranean corridors are emerging that will glue Europe and Africa. However, the routes will traverse North Africa’s gatekeepers.
Croatia's Peljesac Bridge is a prerequisite to enter the borderless Schengen Area. In doing so, however, the project risks undermining Bosnia’s tiny coastline.
Military powers are racing to develop robotic weapon systems that can operate autonomously while lobbying groups are trying to pre-emptively set up a treaty banning it.
Afghanistan's mountains obstruct stability and prosperity. Conflict and tribalism has shaken the state to its core. Now, those same mountains may hold the answer to its misfortune.
Top US military officials believe that China could invade Taiwan within the next six years owing to the fact that America is distracted by domestic issues.
The United States Space Force recently unveiled a document detailing a flexible approach to project power in space.
There is the whispering of war in Eastern Ukraine. Videos posted on social media show convoys of military vehicles arriving in the Donbas region.
Banded together by a shared set of interests, QUAD is fast becoming the leading body for Asia-Pacific security.
China is transforming from a continental power to a maritime power. The leadership in Beijing is aiming for naval supremacy in its nearby waters by 2050
Though the tit-for-tat Israeli and Palestinian reactions seem emotionally driven, there is a calculated rationale in the fighting.
The tools of economic war can bring down governments, and no other is as devious as counterfeiting currency.
Spain has revealed a new policy called Africa Focus, in which it seeks to forge closer economic and institutional ties with African nations.
Russia has sustained itself through all manner of political stress, but what would happen if it collapsed in the 21st century?
Since the 1960s, Australia has attempted to assert sovereignty over the Timor Sea, sometimes resorting to underhanded tactics to get its way.
More than 70 border conflicts took place between 2011 and 2015 in Fergana Valley, where Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan converge.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lost centuries of territorial expansionism. It was left exposed and at risk of further disintegration.
With no American support, the Afghan army is folding under pressure while the Taliban are sweeping across the country, taking district after district.
New realities on the ground have capsized diplomatic talks between Egypt and Ethiopia. Now, Cairo has procured weapons that match its political rhetoric.
Afghanistan is synonymous with a failed state, but in the 1960s, things were looking up. A new constitution granted its citizens the freedom of thought, expression, and assembly.
How did China evolve from an impoverished, agrarian society into the industrial power we know today?
Algeria broke off diplomatic relations with Morocco, accusing the country of several offenses, some plausible and some hysterical. What happens next?
India is launching several commercial corridors in all directions. If successful, the blueprint could reconfigure trade across the region.
Being sandwiched between China and Russia makes for tricky policymaking. Distance is what Mongolia wants more than anything, but its extensive deposits of minerals make it a target for foreign exploitation.
Five years after penning the most expensive conventional submarine contract ever, France and Australia are at loggerheads.
Sand is essential to innovation. It is the silent ingredient to human civilization. And, as incredible as it sounds, we’re running out of it.
President Xi Jinping pledged to redistribute wealth while turning up the heat on China’s upscale citizens and businesses. So, what keeps Chinese communism going?
Africa has more #dictators per capita than any other continent. So, here is a list of Africans who are charged with committing war crimes.
Since early 2021, the price of oil, gas, and coal has nearly doubled. Supply chains are impaired globally, logistics and infrastructures cannot keep up.
Sarajevo says that Bosnian Serb lawmakers are deliberately trying to force Bosnia to fail so that they can make their legal case for secession down the line.
Poland gets serious about defense. A new draft law looks to double the size of its army from 150,000 to 300,000, making it one the largest in the EU
In recent months, Tigray and Oromo forces have captured strategic towns and are now shooting their way to the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa.
As diplomats meet to resolve the crisis in the Horn of Africa, backroom deals between mining conglomerates and national partners are being struck.
After a decade of failed negotiations, Kosovo is now exploring an alternative option: merging with Albania to get access to the outside world.
Turkey has taken an assertive foreign policy to achieve strategic autonomy. It established foreign bases, expanded its military, and built a domestic defence industry.
Sabre-rattling on Ukraine’s border has reignited the debate in Sweden and Finland as to whether it’s safer inside NATO or outside
Russia is at the highest combat readiness in its modern history. About 127,000 Russian troops have gathered near Ukraine’s borders. War remains uncertain, but if Russia is preparing for one, this is it.
Foreign influences are creeping all over Yemen. So much so that the government is incapable of enforcing authority. Not even against allies.
Europe’s biggest and wealthiest state is watching the Ukrainian crisis from the sidelines. German lawmakers refuse to supply Ukraine with weapons while taking a soft attitude with Russia.
Egypt is growing at two million people a year. Urban infrastructures can't cope. Now, lawmakers are opting to create arable lands and new cities.
Hostilities have broken out between Ukraine and Russia, and the stakes are global. So, let’s quantify the military, economic, and political consequences.
Russia's war plan is not going to plan. Russian forces are attempting a full-scale invasion without the military operations that it would require.
Putin ordered his nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. Anxieties are running high; World War III hasn’t been this close since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
By invading Ukraine, Putin has made the biggest strategic blunder of his life. Even if the Russian army were to win every battle, Russia would still lose the war.
As Russia and America compete over influence, India faces a test. Can it strike a balance between the bear and the eagle, and, if not, which way will it tilt?
Terrain, morale, and logistics make up Ukraine’s strategy, but much of its success is also owed to the tactical weapons employed by Ukrainian units.
In spite of the raging fight on the ground, the Ukraine war is not really about Ukraine. It is about Russia attempting to restore the multipolar global order that was lost.
Known as the Siloviki, they are ruthless, cunning, and tenacious. They are closely identified with Putin, forming his most trusted advisers.
Major infrastructure projects have been proposed to master Australia's forbidding geography and turn its deserts into arable land.
Russia's new war goal is to create a land bridge between Crimea and Donbas, join with Transnistria, and seize Ukraine's coastline.
The rivalry over Asia-Pacific is deepening, and China is now considering a military umbrella of its own; something akin to NATO, or the Warsaw Pact.
Finland joining NATO would essentially crush Russia’s nuclear readiness, turn the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake, and drive Moscow into bankruptcy.
Since 2018, Russia has been working on upgrading its second-strike capabilities with an array of new, terrifying doomsday weapons.
Russia collapsed twice before in the 20th century, and while another collapse is unlikely, the Ukraine war has stripped bare Russia’s internal mechanisms.
Germany will raise defense spending above 2 per cent of the GDP, and inject at least 100 billion EUR into a special fund for its military.
Beijing is transforming from a continental power to a sea power. Its strategy is naval dominance in the first island chain by 2030 and naval supremacy in the second island chain by 2050.
Going by modern metrics, an Arab superstate would boast a population of 436 million and a GDP of 2.7 trillion USD, ranking 3rd and 7th respectively worldwide. So, why is there no Arab superstate?
Tiny Lesotho's water sustains tens of millions of people throughout the Orange River Basin – an area 25 times the size of the kingdom itself.
Biden has launched two new initiatives to rival China’s international commercial ambitions. Can America beat China at its own game?
Since the Taliban’s reconquest, Afghanistan has formed the eye of a brewing geopolitical storm. Regional powers are pressing for influence.
The world has changed since Brexit. Lawmakers in Scotland are pushing for a brand-new referendum on independence. So, is this how Britain ends?
Recently, new infrastructures have been constructed to develop the South American interior. The Bi-Oceanic Road Corridor sits at the forefront.
A power struggle is developing in the Pacific. Australian and Chinese diplomats are touring the region, trying to strengthen ties and win new allies.
For months on end, Russia has laid the groundwork to permanently annex parts of Ukraine. Moscow wouldn’t just be expanding its territories; it would be expanding its nuclear umbrella.
Why did Argentina stop growing? Why did it never develop into a prosperous nation like Japan, France, or Canada?
Pakistan just experienced one of the most devastating floods in its history. Villages have washed away and millions are affected. How did this happen?
Taiwan is the key that unlocks the Indo-Pacific. Beyond its crucial location, the island is an economic hub and a centre for technological innovation.
Iran is going through nationwide unrest. More than 80 cities have seen large-scale protests. But is the Islamic state ready to fall?
Russia is looking to deplete Ukraine’s power generation capacity ahead of winter, hoping that the Ukrainian leadership will surrender at the negotiating table.
The story of how the Russian government evolved also explains why it cannot become a democratic state in its current territorial configuration.
Bolivia’s search for ocean access is relentless. So much so that even though it has been landlocked for well over a century, Bolivia still maintains a navy and commemorates the loss of its coastline annually.
As Sweden looks to join NATO, it plans to increase defense spending by 40 per cent and raise an additional 30,000 personnel in the army by 2025.
In spite of all its wealth, influence, and power, Qatar is a tribal society at its core. Yet, to survive in the 21st century, Qatari society needs to reinvent itself.
Macron wants to give the EU a military face and gather the continent’s resources. And he wants France to be the agency of that power
The Middle Corridor is the only East-West land transit route by which goods from China can transit to Europe without going through pariah states like Russia or Iran.
Across Crimea, Russian authorities are constructing new trenches, laying mines, and setting up obstructions to repel a possible Ukrainian ground assault.
For India and China, the idea of choking the other sits at the core of their geopolitics, whether by a String of Pearls or a Necklace of Diamonds.
Using the CFA franc system, France controls the monetary sovereignty of 14 nations, making up nearly 200 million people.
US General Michael Minihan says that open conflict between America and China could happen as early as 2025.
China’s total trade with South America has grown 26-fold over the last two decades. The trend hammers home how the United States has lost ground in a region long seen as its backyard.
Ukraine has taken out more than 8,600 Russian assets, including tanks, vehicles, and aircraft. All coming at a price of 18 billion USD in military spending. The cost-benefit analysis of American support is exceptionally profitable.
After losing access to European markets for invading Ukraine, Russia turned to Iran and India to make up for some of the shortfalls
Brazil is not for beginners. The landscape is rough, industries are developed sporadically, and the economy is largely based on exports.
A leaked document alleges a Russian plan to annex Belarus by 2030 with the ultimate objective being a 'union state'.
Pakistan is in hock to the IMF, the World Bank, China, and others. Meanwhile, the military watches events closely, with many fearing another coup.